Friday, October 24, 2008

Capitulation: In the stock market and the Bush Administration

Well 24 hours can sure make a difference. Futures are down on the Dow over 550 points as the Nikkei dropped 10% in overnight trading, or should I say dumping. Things are looking and feeling like a 9/11 in the markets. So this might be the final capitulation today and Monday, all as we approach the final 11 days before the election.

It will be difficult for anyone to be a buyer of stocks today or Monday, but the biggest shift may be that there will not be buyers of stock for a very long time. So what are stocks worth? No one will know for a while. This economic catastrophe brought to you by the Bush/Cheney Administration. You remember them. They brought you such old favorites as the WMD concerns and invasion of Iraq, the bungled aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the trashing of the Constitution and now the economic collapse of the western world. This will be remembered as the Bush legacy. We have no leadership as we don't believe our President any more.

Do your best today not to let events manage you. Go for a walk today and don't look much at what is happening. This is not a day to sell even though that might be what you want to do. It's too late for all practical purposes. I pray you all can get through this whole.

UPDATE: Noon PST
The simple answer is most likely not. Why? Because the Hedge Funds will be selling in the last 45 minutes of the market today, as they want to get this behind them. Watch the Dow drop sharply 10-20 points in every few seconds, if they are selling. This will set up Monday for a big selloff. We didn't get today the bounce up into the positive that Hedge Funds wanted. The Volume for the day is low compared to previous sessions, so unless there is a lot of dumping, today is not going to represent the market bottom. The Dow at Noon is down -175 to 8,510. We will know in an hour.

UPDATE #2 At 1:00pm PST Market close

Well we did not reach capitulation today and so must wait for another day. The Dow closed down
-317 to 8,374 with an acceleration in selling at the close. The volume was disappointing today, compared to yesterday and the day before. There was the initial drop of about 500 points at the open but the scare never materialized. Unfortunately means we wait for another day. Much can happen over a weekend so be sure to check back for Monday's outlook.

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