Monday, October 07, 2013
Saturday, September 28, 2013
What is Iran's end game in negotiations with the US over its Nuclear program?
Monday, July 01, 2013
Republican women and your power to change America.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Now I've gone and said it: It's NOT time for Gun Control, it's time for Gun elimination!!!
I never owned a gun in my life. I did own a BB rifle, but almost never used it. I never missed having a gun, quite honestly because I don't believe in owning them. In all the talk about this issue in the wake of the tragic deaths of those 20 children in Connecticut yesterday, why aren't we seeing more people with the courage to say that we shouldn't be allowed to even own a Gun! Let's face the truth here, if people couldn't own guns or have access to guns, there wouldn't be these mass murders. Using a gun to kill someone is much easier than facing a person with a knife to kill them. So don't let me here the arguments that the mentally ill would use a knife instead. Sure they would use a knife, but would they be able to kill 20 kids before they were stopped. Let's get real about this issue. It's time for a US Supreme Court ruling as to whether the second amendment has applicability today.
In the days when it was passed, we had a militia. I'm fine to having the National Guard and other Military organizations having them for their job. But I do like Japan's views on Gun ownership. They believe no one should own a "gun or guns or a sword or swords" and then they make exceptions from that position. They have a very peaceful society and by God, I would like one here too. People are afraid of standing up to others in disputes because they are always afraid the person might have a Gun. Standing up for yourself doesn't mean using violence but having a discussion of your objections. But the NRA wants you to believe you must have a gun or allow anyone to have any kind no matter what.
We're not good at Conflict resolution skills as a society. We need to teach our children in school about Conflict Resolution, as a required course, and not just taught in one grade. What's a lesson for a 7 or 10 year old would be different for what you might teach a 15 or 16 year old. It's time for a new approach about this issue. It's time we don't assume the 2nd amendment has application to the 21st Century. We don't really need to hunt for game. Supermarkets provide all the food we need and they are abundant. Just look at how large our children and people have become over the past 2 centuries! Would our country be that much worse off if all guns were confiscated, just like Gold was for a while in this country? I don't think so. I know, we would never get every gun. I agree. But we might really reduce these mass murders! To me that would be worth the inconvenience! If those men and women out there have a real need to have a gun, then maybe we need to institute forced Military service for everyone. Then you can play with your guns where we may need them. And after you've not only had the chance to use a gun and maybe even killed someone, you might actually decide you don't really need one after all.
Please leave a comment as I am interested in your viewpoint on this. Let's start the dialogue now!
Friday, October 26, 2012
Who will become President?
Saturday, June 23, 2012
Pre Presidential Election wisdom
Friday, February 24, 2012
Taking a long needed break
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Political campaign for President and lack of "civility." UPDATE Feb. 18
It is going to get much worse I fear, before this election campaign is over. Notice the language of Newt when he talks about President Obama being the "Food Stamp" president. Yes, there are many on Food Stamps today, but not just minorities are getting them. Mostly white Americans receive them today. But the racial undertones are there and the dog whistle call to the far Right gets the applause lines from the far Right. For one brief moment yesterday the Congress was able to put this war behind them and join in a tribute to Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona in her struggle to survive a gunshot wound to the head last year. She has given up her Congressional seat so she can focus on her rehabilitation. That's smart. A small glimpse of sanity in an otherwise anger filled political season.
UPDATE Feb. 18th
Last night on the show Real Time with Bill Maher, Bill closed his New Rules segment commenting on the disrespect of President Obama, in an affront to the first Black President that seems to be based on racism. I totally agree with his views and want to say here I really valued his persistent reference to how this President has been disrespected from the very beginning of his Presidency, unlike the treatment of any other President in history. Thanks Bill!
Labels: 1%, 99%, Bill Maher, Civil Rights, Civil war, Class warfare, Food Stamp President, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, political, Presidential campaign, racial undertones, Rep. Gabby Gifford, So. Carolina
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
January 17, 2012 Dow analysis
If and when we do have a clearer picture of where we might be headed I will post something to that effect. But we could be in this never land for a while as Europe tries to straighten itself out from their Sovereign debt crisis. Greece is on the brink of succumbing to default any time now.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Where is the Dow heading?
In the chart above, the bottom red line marks a short term support line. Breaking below this line doesn't mean we have a significant breakdown, but it does mean we need to be careful. In the 5 year chart below, you will see where the next real support line is and this one we must stay above or we may go down and retest the lows again.
Much going on this week in Europe and while we begin Earnings season with Alcoa reporting its earnings, Europe may take center stage over any news here.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Job creation ain't what it used to be!
What is significant from this chart is what has happened the past decade of the 2000's. Basically, no jobs were created. In fact jobs were lost during the Bush Presidency. Jobs have been created the past several years, but no where need the number required to sustain a good economy with low unemployment.
Now we bring in Ross Perot. If you remember when Ross Perot ran for President, he warned us all about NAFTA not being good for America. In fact, his famous quote from the Presidential campaign became, "If NAFTA passes you will hear a giant sucking sound of jobs leaving America. In 1994, NAFTA became law. I think Ross Perot has been proven to be correct after all!
Friday, December 30, 2011
2011 market investments and learnings from ETF instruments
Let me give you an example using the Russell 2000 index, symbol RUT, and comparing it versus the ETF's which represent the Index, TNA, the 3x Ultra Pro ETF and TZA, the -3x Short ETF. This means that on a given day where the Russell moves up 1%, TNA should move up about 3% while TZA should be down 3% on the same day. This is all well and good in practice of a given day, but if you do not sell on that given day and lock in your profit while looking for more the next day and possibly the next day after that, then you will be surprised at the cumulative effect that will have on your portfolio.
For 2011, the Russell 2000 has lost 5%. One would expect the following. TNA should be then down 15% and TZA should be up 15%, but that's not what really happens. Let's see what you would guess the numbers should be before I reveal them? Take a guess! Well the chart below is a chart of the Russell and TZA, which one would have thought would be up 15% for the year. Here's the chart:
Now let's look at what you would have expected for TNA versus what actually occurs. In the chart below I have the Russell plotted against TNA.
The 3rd chart is a plot of only TNA versus TZA for the 1 year period.
It took me a while to realize I needed to trade these ETF;s when I made any good profits and get over trying to get back to my average purchase price, but when I did I actually made some good moves thanks to the volatility of the market during the year. My best advice is don't buy and hold these or other ETF's for long periods of time or you will eventually lose your money. I suspect many others don't understand these ETF's and it has been a painful lesson to learn. I hope these charts make it very clear and that the smae mistake is not repeated in 2012.
So what time duration seems to correlate closely or to say it another way, how long should you keep these ETF's. Here is a chart below of only 3 months comparing the Russell, symbol RUT, to TNA. During the last 3 months, RUT gained 16% and one would expect that TNA should be up 3x that amount or 48%. Well in fact, TNA gained only 39% as is seen in this chart below. So you will lose even in short a time as 3 months. Here's the chart:
The next chart is of the RUT versus TZA for the same past 3 month time period. As you might expect with a 16% gain of RUT that it would create a loss of 48% of TZA. Well as you can see the loss was greater than 48%. The loss was in fact 52%.
In summary, even a 3 month time period will cost you bigger losses or less gains than you might have come to expect. The shorter the timeframe the better the correlation.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Kim Jong Il funeral celebration
Year End summary of German DAX Index
Now Head and Shoulder patterns do not mean that this market will necessarily drop from here, but here is the definition for that pattern from Investopedia:
"The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. And as one might imagine from the name, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders.
Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend. There are two versions of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The head-and-shoulders top is a signal that a security's price is set to fall, once the pattern is complete, and is usually formed at the peak of an upward trend. The second version, the head-and-shoulders bottom (also known as inverse head and shoulders), signals that a security's price is set to rise and usually forms during a downward trend.
Both of these head and shoulders have a similar construction in that there are four main parts to the head-and-shoulder chart pattern: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. The patterns are confirmed when the neckline is broken, after the formation of the second shoulder.
The head and shoulders are sets of peaks and troughs. The neckline is a level of support or resistance. The head and shoulders pattern is based on Dow Theory's peak-and-trough analysis. An upward trend, for example, is seen as a period of successive rising peaks and rising troughs. A downward trend, on the other hand, is a period of falling peaks and troughs. The head-and-shoulders pattern illustrates a weakening in a trend where there is deterioration in the peaks and troughs.
Head and Shoulders Top
Again, the head-and-shoulders top signals to chart users that a security's price is likely to make a downward move, especially after it breaks below the neckline of the pattern. Due to this pattern forming mostly at the peaks of upward trends, it is considered to be a trend-reversal pattern, as the security heads down after the pattern's completion.
This pattern has four main steps for it to complete itself and signal the reversal. The first step is the formation of the left shoulder, which is formed when the security reaches a new high and retraces to a new low. The second step is the formation of the head, which occurs when the security reaches a higher high, then retraces back near the low formed in the left shoulder. The third step is the formation of the right shoulder, which is formed with a high that is lower than the high formed in the head but is again followed by a retracement back to the low of the left shoulder. The pattern is complete once the price falls below the neckline, which is a support line formed at the level of the lows reached at each of the three retracements mentioned above."
I hope this lengthly definition helps you analyze the charts yourself. For additional information on chart patterns, I find the book "Technical Analysis Explained" quite useful
Monday, December 26, 2011
Year end summary of the Dow and stock market trends
It is interesting to notice the Volume chart for the Dow. We averaged about 600 Billion shares a month from 2002 to mid 2009. Since then we have had a significant drop to 380 Billion shares. So the rise from 7,000 was built on significantly less volume than the rise from 2002 to 2009, which was a Bull market rally. It looks to me that since 2009 we have been in a Bear Market rally, as the volume has been too low for a true Bull rally.
The key to watch on this Dow chart are the 2 red lines. We will need a breakout either to the upside or to the downside to determine longer term trends from this chart alone. However, looking at the Dow 25 year monthly chart, we get more clarity, as seen below.
I do still expect a drop below current levels during 2012. The Head and Shoulder patters or "W" pattern as I call it does point to lower lows going forward and limited upside potential.
Given the chart readings, the next thing to do is see if world events suggest a more optimistic or pessimistic view for 2012. We have a Presidential year election in November 2012 and we have had gridlock in the Congress in 2011. I don't see the gridlock easing and many issues including our own debt which must be dealt with as well as continually funding the government. The Unemployment scene isn't going to get much better because we have structural unemployment which will be around for a long time unless somehow we retrain workers in new skills to meet a more technological demand than typical blue collar workers have brought to the work environment. We also have the Supreme Court making a decision on President Obama's Health care bill legislation as to whether it is Constitutional or not.
Then we have the Sovereign Debt issues in Europe, the Arab Spring and new leadership in North Korea, a test of the government of Iraq to function without our military presence and then there is Iran's pursuit of Nuclear weapons. The Euro is in crisis and Russians are challenging Putin's grasp of the presidency there. And last but not least, we have all those who believe the world will end on Dec 21st 2012 because of the Mayan predictions.
Let's conclude with the fact that 2012 will have many volatility swings ands most likely testing the previous extremes of those swings. It is a year to be cautious with your financial assets. My belief is that we humans will do almost anything to avoid pain rather than to risk succeeding. Therefore, I believe it is wiser to be on that side of the investment strategy by being short from time to time. It is also wise to take profits sooner rather than being greedy and waiting for more profit before selling.
Good luck this coming year. Thanks for taking the time to visit my Blog. This new year marks 7 years of my blogging. I have had 79,000 visitors to my site in that period. Happy New Year!
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Ever wonder why we promote the weirdest, zaniest candidates for President? The answer!
Now you know! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours and let's all pray for a smarter electorate as well. For those who don't know what the word "electorate" means, you might consider staying home this Presidential election. Only kidding! :)
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Market comments for the coming week of Christmas
Sunday, December 04, 2011
Market comments for the coming week of Dec. 5th.
This week will have its important announcements. The biggest news item will be the European meeting, scheduled on Dec. 8th and 9th, of Finance ministers to discuss resolving the Sovereign debt issues of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and others. This will be the most important meeting of the last year as it is the first since the coordinated Central Bank intervention to lower the rates banks pay to increase reserves. The Central Banks took this action because there was an immediate concern of a large bank failure in Europe. Our markets will react to what happens there, not here.
Saturday, December 03, 2011
The Fed and its $7.7 Trillion secret bailout to banks
Click here for the Bloomberg article exposing the Fed.
Get everyone of your contacts to read this article. The 99% now have plenty of ammunition to keep their movement going. Ron Paul was right that the Fed needed to be audited and eliminated.
Friday, December 02, 2011
Ideas for the 99% Occupy movement. Idea #2
Are you for this too?
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Ideas for the 99% Occupy movement. Idea #1
So here is my first suggestion. Most of us are concerned about the "Too Big to Fail" banks here in the US. There are about 6 of these institutions and here are the list of the ones I remember:
JP Morgan Chase
Bank of America
Anyone who is concerned these banks are too big can withdraw all their money and put them in local banks and Credit Unions. I like Community banks myself because they loan to local merchants. If the 99% withdrew their support of these banks they would be forced into shrinking and the size of their assets would shrink dramatically.
Idea #2 is in the works. If you have any ideas, feel free to leave a comment and maybe yours will be posted.