Thursday, December 02, 2010

Market comments for Dec. 2nd.

My goodness, yesterday's market move of 250 points on the Dow based upon the following news:
1. Ireland still afloat, but concerns over Portugal and Spain's debt lingers.
2. The Chicago PMI came in at 62.5 versus and expectation of 59.6
3. Consumer Confidence for Nov. came in at 54.1 versus an expectation of 52.0
4. Challenger job cuts down -3.3% y/y
5. Construction spending was 0.7% for October versus expectations of -0.5%, but was exactly the same as last month.
6. Unit Labor Costs were down -0.1% versus an expectation of -0.4%, even though last reading was -0.1%
7. The ISM index came in for Nov. at 56.6 versus an expectation of 56.5 and a prior reading of 56.9
8. Crude Inventories came in at 1.07 M versus a prior reading of 1.03

Now I ask you, does this news warrant that much of a market movement? I am waiting to see Initial jobless Claims numbers in a few minutes. Last week the number was 407K. The expectation is for the number to be 422K. So think about this for a moment, if last week was 407K and the trend has been coming down, why would the "expectations" be for 422K? I'll tell you, so that the market can have beat the expectation and the jobless number will come in under 422K. You just watch. So any number between 407 and 422 will be cheered and the market shall rise as "things are improving out there". Please shop!! I will add the actual data in 10 minutes but wanted to post this first.

UPDATE: 5:35am PST

Well it's going to be interesting to see the spin today because the actual Initial Jobless Claims came in at 437K, higher than the estimate. That's an increase of 26K they are saying over last reading. Continuing Claims are at 4.27 Million jobs, not counting all those not included of course, which comes to about another 13 Million people. Have a great day because you should know that they are not going to extend Unemployment benefits for the people who have been out of work for several years. I call it the Bah Humbug Christmas spirit this season.

And here is the headline after the data came out, fresh of the wires, so to speak:

Futures Up Despite Jobless Claims Rise
By Melinda Peer 12/02/10 - 08:48 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Stock futures were looking to extend the previous session's rally on Thursday even as initial jobless claims climbed to 436,000 as markets anticipated the European Central Bank would enact measures to contain eurozone weakness.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

TZA = evaporating from my account in droves!

8:30 AM  

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