Thursday, June 30, 2011

Market comments for June 30th

Today is the last trading day for June and the second quarter. The headline reads as follows, but is it a true reflection of the data? "Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline, Top Estimates"

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating little progress in the labor market. So is that saying that claims fell? a drop of only 1,000 is statistically indifferent from last weeks number and if they gave weight to the fact that Continuing Claims had increased too, it would have been more accurate.

It is true that Jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 428,000 in the week ended June 25, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. And that the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 420,000. So is 428K versus an expectation a big miss or not? Well it's a lot more than only a 1,000 drop is. These headlines are so misleading and manipulative, no wonder Consumer Confidence is at the lowest level in a non recession period since 1978. People just don't believe the media manipulation of the data anymore. The truth of this story is that we are still having over 400K Initial Jobless claims weekly and not below 400K weekly which we were for a stretch. As long as we continue to create so many unemployed, the economy is not going to get better and we are not going to be able to pay the debt off! That's a fact!

Oh, and on a separate note this: The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 43.9 from minus 44.9. So is this that much better? Think not as it is still minus and not plus.

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