Friday, June 24, 2011

Market comments for June 24th

Which way will today's market play out? That is what I have been asking myself. The market had been down over 200 points yesterday but managed to stage a comeback and close down only 59 points on the Dow. But as you can see from the 3 month chart below, there was a definite Sell signal confirmed with a Hammer Candlestick pattern not only for the Dow, but also for the other major indexes like the S&P 500. Notice also the higher volume yesterday on the lower chart of the Dow 3 month chart.

But still the market did save over a 200 plus drop in the Dow and that gave me pause. So I pealed back some of the data to see what the charts are telling me going into today. Below you will notice a 2 day chart of the Dow in 5 minute increments. This chart clearly shows the surge back up from the lows and does show a slanted upwards "W" pattern or Head and Shoulder pattern going into the close.

So as we are within a few minutes of the open, I believe today will be a struggle between the Bulls and the Bears for control. Watch the range be tight for most of the day as the Volatility will drop. Watch volume as it should be less than yesterday as well.

There are still major issues to be dealt with like the impasse of the Congress to raise the debt ceiling and you know all is still not well in Greece. So if I had to bet, I would say we have a higher chance of ending down today than up. Of course, on the other hand, the Fed still has some influence in manipulating the market with still some funds left to spend before the end of June. Maybe we should all just go away and come back in the Fall after all. :)

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