Saturday, September 28, 2013

What is Iran's end game in negotiations with the US over its Nuclear program?

I have been reading and listening to media reports on the reasoning the Iranian government chose now to negotiate and change its stance on its Nuclear program. Many are suggesting that sanctions have worked and finally got Iran's attention. Some suggest it was President Obama's stance on Syrian Chemical weapons that did the trick. It sounds like they did it because we are strong. I totally disagree with that assessment. I think it is because we showed weakness in negotiating with Syria and with Congress. We were going to lose the vote in the Congress for approval for an attack on Syria. So what's up?
  • It is my view that in this perceived weakness of our President in his making a severe misstep with the Congress, it created an opening for Iran to rethink how to take advantage of this moment. You see it was Vladimir Putin who helped Obama save face. It wasn't because he likes President Obama, but rather because it was in his strategic interest to not allow these chemical weapons to be disbursed to enemies of Russia in Georgia and other Caucasus nations around Russia.
  • So what is the end game of Iran? The key to that answer is reviewing the exact language of the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani's speech in his address to the UN this week. Here is a key excerpt from that speech:
  • "Iran's nuclear program - and for that matter, that of all other countries - must pursue exclusively peaceful purposes. I declare here, openly and unambiguously, that, notwithstanding the positions of others, this has been, and will always be, the objective of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nuclear weapon and other weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran's security and defense doctrine, and contradict our fundamental religious and ethical convictions. Our national interests make it imperative that we remove any and all reasonable concerns about Iran's peaceful nuclear program."
  • The key phrase for me in this speech was the underlined portion above. I believe that Iran's position will be to insure that they can show they will have no nuclear weapons, but will have nuclear energy for their energy needs. I believe in this negotiating process with the West they will want Israel to also disarm their Nuclear weapons and this will cause the West and the US huge problems as all arguments as to why Iran should not have Nuclear weapons are similar for Israel not to have them as well. A Nuclear weapon free Middle East is in all Countries interest. But I will tell you here that Israel will not even admit they have the weapons nor will they be willing to get rid of them! You can put that in the Bank!
  • The Iranians are a very smart, well educated people. Many here in the US are naive to believe that the Iranians are coming to the negotiating table out of weakness. Believe me, they believe they have an opening and an edge or they wouldn't be contemplating this move at this time! Buyer beware!

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