Politics and World affairs. Comments on daily life and when I just get annoyed!
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Market comments for Nov. 30th
Well QE2 saved the market from much heavier losses yesterday, I'm quite confident. The market turned around about an hour before the close from the Dow being down about 160 points to closing down less than 40 points. You can see the chart for the moment it started but it did. After all, we don't want those shoppers to be depressed as the Shopping season is upon us. However, over in the Euro zone things are much different. Their markets are correcting without the kind of intervention we are having here. Expect the same to happen today.
The pre market indicators show the Dow down about 85 points in pre-market and the S&P 500 down about 10 points. That keeps putting pressure on the Dow to stay below 11,000 and below the 50 day Moving average. Nasdaq Futures are down about 20 points. German markets and France's CAC index are down about 0.5% while the English FTSE is down about 1.25% at this hour.
Housing prices were down about 2% in Q3 according to the Case Shiller report. I must be away at work today so look for the Consumer Confidence number to come out at 7:00am PST. The expectations are for an increase to 52.0% from the prior reading of 50.2%. Oh, and the Chicago PMI is expected to come in at 58.0, down from the 60.6 reading last month.
Today's Futures on the Dow and other Indexes are pointing down at this hour in pre-market. European markets are down about 1% or more in the face of the Ireland bailout over the weekend. One note here was that on Nov. 26th in our markets, the Put to Call ratio at 9:00am hit a new low of 0.57 which was another sell signal. It recovered during the day to about 0.85, but today, with the market looking to go lower, the Put to Call ratio will rise. Watch for the Dow and S&P to stay within the range of the 25 and 50 day Moving average because a break up or down will signal a new trend.
As promised the hype about the Shopping this weekend being very good, arrived on time and with the gusto I predicted. That is all they have been saying on CNBC this morning. They trotted out Abby Joseph Cohen to tell us she expects the S&P500 to go to 1350. Here we sit at 1189 as of the close on Friday. That would be at least another 10% gain.
UPDATE: 9:00am PST
The Put to Call ratio hit a peak this morning at 10:30EST of 1.19. This could signal another reversal to the up side for today.
Good day everyone. Hoping you are resting and catching your breath this longest of holiday weekends. You all work hard and once in a while you get a chance to rest so I hope you are taking it and resting as hard as you work.
Today I have 3 charts I am posting below. All 3 charts cover the past 3 months and all have 25 and 50 day Moving Average lines on them. You will notice that both the Dow and S&P500 are in a tight range between the 25 and 50 day Moving Average lines. The 3rd chart is of the Russell 2000 and it has a noticeably different chart pattern. It has remained above both the 25 and 50 day Moving Average recently. I believe that this Index is in an overbought condition and should have a larger drop when the breakout occurs to the downside. The Russell 2000 Candlestick pattern was a Hammer on Friday. So we shall see if this reverses the uptrend. I have received many questions as to whether TZA will ever recover from the losses piled up on this Ultra Short ETF. That's a great question, but like all market moves, I can't tell you. All I can say is that I firmly believe we are eventually going to have a major market correction and retest the lows on the Dow of 6440, and when that happens many are going to be very scared. Whether the trigger is a Sovereign debt issue in the Euro zone or an economic trigger here as many believe QE2 from the Fed is killing us by death of 1000 cuts at a time.
In the meantime, live life the best you can to its fullest, as life is short. Spend quality time with family and tell them you love them. And as the Christmas holiday approaches, do something for the least of us, as you will feel good when you do. Whatever you have it's more than many in this world.
Well, it's a short market day today but I can't keep the same prediction as I had yesterday. Today is pointing down around the world. The debt crisis in the Euro zone is spreading beyond Greece and Ireland and now threatens Portugal and Spain according to many stories by the Main St. media outlets. The Dow Futures have been down about 100 points this morning in pre-market and the Euro countries markets are down about 1.5% on average today.
Many like CNBC are hyping the Black Friday Shopping spree, which is the greatest marketing vehicle in America. With all the hype about "shoppers are spending" they hope to entice those weak of mind and discipline to get out there and "help America". Bah Humbug, I say. I'm all for buying gifts for family and others as the next person. I just think the best way to help Americans right now is to help the less fortunate. And those folks are the ones who have been unemployed for 99 weeks or longer. You want to help America? Hire one! Call your Senator and Congressman and have them pass another extension in Unemployment benefits for them. Or you could take in a person who is living on the street and help them get on their feet. Or you can volunteer at a shelter or donate Food to the Food bank in your local community. These are the best things you can do right now. And you can have the courage to disagree with those who say these folks are freeloaders, even if they work with you or live in your neighborhood. Some of us need to stand up to those who have to understand the plight of those who don't have. That's what America used to be like. But it seems in this continual season of partisanship, that has been lost too. And don't blame the victims!
I feel better now. A good rant clears the throat! Now listen to this You Tube video of what's happening over in Europe with this debt issue as one politician "clears his throat" too. You don't hear this in our Congress, but you should!
With the stock market closed today and minds on Turkey, stuffing and all the trimmings, I think I can make a very safe market prediction. The market won't be going down today, nor will it be going up. A Buy and Hold strategy will work for today, but there are no promises for tomorrow. THAT'S ONE PREDICTION I FINALLY WILL GET RIGHT!
The Put to Call ratio will be unmoved and remain where it was at the close of the market yesterday, which was at the 1.06 level. The last time the Put to Call ratio was this high was on Oct. 12th, Christopher Columbus day, when it closed at the 1.15 level.
Given this market certainty for today, I would suggest settling back, taking a deep, relaxing breath and watch The Macy's Thanksgiving Parade, your favorite Football game rivalry and join family and friends for a wonderful Thanksgiving dinner, while giving thanks for all of what you have. I plan to do this too because I see the storm clouds on the horizon, but today is no day for that. Just look at the best side of everything today and chill. That's an order!
Well we did go below 11.000 on the Dow this morning, as the Put to Call ratio had suggested it would on last Friday, but it quickly went back above it. It took a barrage of blasts by North Korea into South Korea to drive all world markets lower, but whatever the event, the markets will be under pressure for at least another 40 days. The Nasdaq has also gone below the psychological 2500 level and currently is around 2489, down 42 points today. The S&P 500 is also down to the 1180 level. Tax related selling is full in force right now as well. Insider trading this morning shows an imbalance of Insider Selling dollars versus Insider Buying. One company to note is TRW and 5 Insiders have sold $490 million dollars of stock this morning. Home Depot (HD) had 3 Insiders who sold $173 million dollars of its stock and Cinemark (CNK) had one Insider sell $177 Million of its stock this morning. Contrast this to 3 Insiders buying AIG stock for a total of $45 million (this could be a fed easing investment) and Live Nation (LYV) had one Insider Buying $45 million in its stock.
Yesterday's market close for the week showed another new low for the Put to Call ratio. It closed on Friday at 0.66 and the week before it closed at 0.69. This is yet another sell signal that we are going lower. The question you might be asking yourself is why did the market have a good day on Thursday? Simple answer, 2 factors, both related. The first factor was the GM new IPO offering, which was a good thing if you want the government out of the car business. With the IPO, the government can get the money back they invested to save the auto industry and jobs. THe saving of jobs worked and it looks like GM has a better footing to do both.
Now the second factor, which I said was related was this, the market was manipulated by the Fed to stay up, so the IPO would be seen as successful. The Fed did say it's monetary easing (manipulation of the stock market as just one manifestation of the use of that word) was working this week when Bernanke spoke abroad. With prices propped up, it was a great climate for the IPO that day. But on Friday, the market reached a more bullish extreme as puts had been dumped on Thursday and Friday causing the Put to Call ratio to go even lower than last Friday, Nov. 5th.
We may be setting up a pattern of increasingly lower lows on the Put to Call ratio, which in turn will set up larger sell-offs and possibly this is how we have have the really big one. When that happens we should see this ratio drop as low as 0.5 or lower.
Below is a 1 month chart of the Dow. As I said on Nov. 5th, the Put to Call ratio signaled the reversal in trend. Compare where we are now, with an even lower Put to Call ratio yesterday. We did not go over the 25 day Moving Average line in yellow. So I see another leg down within the next week and a half. I say a week and a half because we have a short week because of Thanksgiving. So it will take the following week for the market to drop below 11,000 on the Dow and stay there. Watch the hype about what a great shopping day the day after Thanksgiving was for Retail Sales. It will be all lies! There won't be much to post next week and you may be traveling, so let me wish one and all a very Happy Thanksgiving. My wife and I will be local and enjoying a Turkey dinner with my friend and neighbor, his children.
The Put to Call ratio on Nov. 5th was a sell signal!
As it turns out, as I said on my Blog back on Nov. 7th, the Put to Call ratio hitting a 7th month low back on Nov. 5th, was a sell signal. The stock market has been steadily dropping since then. In the first few days, the drop was modest and as each day in turn has elapsed, the drop has picked up speed. As is shown again below, the Put to Call ratio had been the signal back at the lowest blue point on the chart, on April 14th. The Dow closed that day at 11,123 and then it rose to the peak you see on May 20th. The Dow on May 20th was at 10,068, so you can clearly see that the low point was a sell signal for the Dow and other indexes. It had dropped over 1000 points. The Dow chart below shows the movement so far. Note also on this 3 month Dow chart the number of Hammer Candlestick patterns which have occurred in the past 10 days. The timing of this trough of selling is coming because of the looming decision many must make in the next 45 days as tax decisions and planning are going to force more selling. Why you ask, because the Bush Tax cuts are set to expire on Dec. 31st and it looks right now that Congress is not going to extend them because they can't get Republicans to compromise and allow it to be only extended for those making $250,000 or under. If you are a Republican, you want it extended for the wealthy too and that's the compromise they want Democrats to make. In either case nothing is going to be passed most likely before year end. That means folks are going to take profits now and that means selling pressure all the way up to Dec. 31st as it is a more favorable Capital Gains tax now than after Jan. 1st. It makes perfect sense and needed to take place after the election, when the results were known. The Democrats don't have the votes in the Senate to get something passed just for those make $250,000 or under, so the fighting and posturing will continue. It is a rich man poor man argument. What side are you on? Or have you fooled yourself and think by allowing them for all jobs will be created? I doubt that because jobs haven't been created in the Private sector for 9 years now and the tax cuts have been in place that long. Try another argument!
Well as it turns out the Put to Call ratio did signal this week's drop in the market. The Dow dropped 252 points, but that is only 2.2% for the week. What was also amazing was that Cisco stock dropped about 17% in one day on the news they were going to miss analysts expectations, even while having a good quarter. But Cisco dropped more yesterday closing at $20.15 and hitting a low yesterday of $20.03 for the day. Cisco was as at its recent high of $24.50, before the earnings disappointment. So it has had a 17.8% haircut. Notice from the chart below the gap down but look more importantly at the volume traded. This has more to go down, depending on market conditions. Now look at the volume during the decline this week and compare it to the previous volume average, from the chart of the Dow below. You will also notice that the pullback on Friday dropped us below the uptrend line. The big question is will it go back over it or continue to drop. The market does look like it will go down further but it is anyone's guess how much and on which days.
Below is a 3 month chart of the S&P 500, which shows a similar pattern and the break of the uptrend line. This coming week there will be more political banter, because the President is back from his Asia trip. There has been some deliberate leaked news about proposed cuts in spending and raising taxes from the bipartisan White House Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform that President Obama had formed, which is headed by Erskine Bowles, and Alan Simpson. I think they had leaked these ideas out to the media so that commentary could start in advance of the President returning to Washington, and most likely will dominate the news along with any unexpected Financial bombs which come to light this week. The Irish Debt issue has crept back in the headlines in Europe and there is an uneasiness with the Fed's actions and approach with Quantitative Easing (QE2). Ever onward!
Dow Gold ratio: 2 charts show different perspectives on where we are today.
I get Chart of the Day every Friday and, once in a while, I post it. Today's posting by them was on the Dow/Gold ratio, which they show as far back as 1999. I then took my own chart which goes back to 1980 and updated it using a comparable Log scale. So here's what Chart of the Day says: Today's chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes a mere eight ounces of gold to "buy the Dow." This is considerably less (82% less) than the 44.8 ounces it took to buy the Dow back in 1999. While the actual Dow continues to make new post-financial crisis rally highs, the most recent rally that occurred in the Dow priced in gold is fairly similar to several bear market rallies that have occurred since late 1999. It is also of interest that the Dow / gold has often tested (and is currently testing) resistance (red line) of its accelerated downtrend but has failed to break through on each occasion.
As you can see from this second chart below, which goes back to 1980, we may be in for a continued drop in this ratio, I don't believe the chart from the Chart of the day folks gives a true picture of where we are historically, as does this longer period chart below.
Market comments for Nov. 11th: Grantham video on CNBC
Yes, if you do nothing more today than listen to this video clip of Jeremy Grantham, Chairman of Grantham Van Otterloo, one of the most respected investment firms, you will not regret it. He manages over $100 Billion in assets and was interviewed by Maria Bartiromo on CNBC.
The market is down about 105 points on the Cisco news today. The Put to Call ratio was only about 0.90 this morning and has since gone lower to 0.83 as of this moment. It surely is not causing a stampede to buy Puts, so this market is still too confident of the Fed in my view and irrational.
Cisco disappoints analysts in after hours. Stock drops 15%.
In after hours tonight, according to Bloomberg.com, Cisco forecast sales and profit for this quarter that fell short of analysts’ estimates, sending the shares down as much as 15 percent in late trading. This will have an impact on the Dow tomorrow as the Fed will have to start to use QE2 to help prop up stocks, as many sell Cisco shares.
To read this article on the announcement, click here and a commentary on Yahoo here.
Data released this morning on Initial Jobless Claims came in at 435K as compared to an expectation of 450K. Last week the number was 459K so this is in the right direction for the unemployment rate to start coming down, but it is so small a difference it is still much too high. Remember these are Initial claims, new claims, and all to add to the Millions of Unemployed in the country.
The effect on the market was that the Dow, which was down about 12 before the announcement is now showing it will open up, about 5-10 points.
Other data released today so far was Export prices ex-agriculture was up 0.7% while Import Prices ex-Oil was up 0.3%.
The Put to call ratio has risen a bit to 0.84 at the close yesterday but as you have seen the past few days the 7th month low in this indicator I reported over the weekend did show the market was overbought and the market would most likely go down, which it has both Monday and Tuesday.
In the first several hours of trading this morning the Put to Call ratio was 0.59 and 0.60, which again is relatively low for the past 7 months. The markets are negative at this time but not by a lot. The Dow is down 35 points as I type this. This morning Wholesale Inventories data for Sept. was released. It was up 1.5% while expectations were for 0.6%. The month of August was revised upwards as well from a reading of 0.8% to 1.2%, which means inventories are building.
Yesterday's Dow candlestick pattern was a Hammer, which usually means a reversal to a trend. This is consistent with the Put to Call ratio going low and signaling a sell reading. Additionally, Insider Selling has increased as well.
It will be a slow week regarding economic data being released. We have the usual Weekly Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims on Thursday. There is data being released on the Trade Balance and on Friday there is information being released from Michigan Sentiment and Consumer Confidence Indexes. So it is really a quiet week as far as data is concerned.
I have attached a chart showing the Put to Call ratio for all equities for 2009 and 2010. On Friday we hit a multi month low on this reading. At extremes of the top and bottom they are buy and sell signals. We are approaching the low, which often can mean a sell signal is close. The day of the low is not the actual day the market reverses but it often does within a week. I would prefer to see the Put to Call ratio down to 0.50 to 0.55 for a definitive signal, but we haven't had that low a number in a very long time. Although on Nov. 5th, we did reach a low of 0.55 in the first hour of trading and then it moderated later to close at 0.69 for the day, as you can see in the chart below. The lowest blue point occurred on April 14th. The Dow closed that day at 11,123 and then it rose to the peak you see on May 20th. The Dow on May 20th was at 10,068, so you can clearly see that the low point was a sell signal for the Dow and other indexes. If we go any lower on the Put to Call ratio, I would say it is a Sell Signal of an anticipated market drop.
Also, one important fact not to be thought of lightly is the planned elimination of the Bush tax cuts as of January 1st. The Congress is creating uncertainty, as to whether the lame duck Congress will approve extending the Bush tax cuts for another year for everyone, or just those making up to $250,000/year. That means many may choose not to take a chance that Congress will approve the tax cuts and, instead, sell their stocks to lock in their profits for 2010 in the lower tax bracket. So there are many moving parts. Instead of the market rising as it usually does in anticipation of the Christmas shopping season, we actually may have pressure to sell stock before years end. So paying attention to this Put to Call ratio and the activities of Congress are most important! Stay tuned! Oh, and don't forget to take the mini poll on the right margin of this page. Thanks.
Many of my friends are depressed after the election of a Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the picking up of more seats in the Senate. I tell them to get over it, it was inevitable. They believe they didn't tell their story correctly, of the many successes they had. I say it had nothing to do with that. They ask me then, "What was the reason?" I tell them, it was their DNA! Let me explain.
Democrats traditionally have been the party against wars. They were against the Vietnam war, the Iraq war and more recently the Afghanistan war. They consider themselves Peace makers, non-violent activists, "for the people" and for the Middles Class and against the corruption of big business. They are compassionate for the situation of Illegal immigrants, because they see them as just trying to help their families survive. I think that's a fair assessment any, self respecting Democrat, would agree with.
Now let me describe the Republicans. They not only don't fear war, they embrace it. They are very good at the "language of war" and can convince people to vote against their own self interests, because it's "best for America!". They use well crafted language to create the dialogue and, through inference, the oppositions dialogue. For example, the use of the phrase, "Death Panels" was a label they used for late life counseling in the Healthcare debate. Democrats are left defending, they are "not Death panels," as an argument. They use language such as "2nd Amendment remedies", "take them out" and other language of war.
The object of war is to beat/destroy or conquer your enemy. The Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell has defined President Obama as the enemy, and, therefore, any action taken that can do that is fair, because it is war. He got away with it and was actually rewarded for his stance, with the Republican election victory on Nov. 2nd and saying No to Democrats for every piece of legislation they put forward. Let's take a look at his enemy and make a comparison.
President Obama is an "intellectual" who uses positive language, and tone, to inspire others. He wrote the book, The Audacity of Hope" as an example of that view of life. He doesn't really want war and did get us out of Iraq and wants to get us out of Afghanistan too. But in order for Republicans to have a war against him they must first demonize him. That is why they have piled on to the claim he was not born here and therefore was elected President in error, and then they link the fact that according to the Constitution you must be born in the U.S. to be President. That last phrase is to get the ignorant and uneducated to believe therefore it must be so because they said he wasn't born here, even though he was born in Hawaii. He must not be a legitimate President. Of course what they don't say is, he's black and you know we don't like a black President because we are still fighting the Civil war here in the South against those yankees who should have just minded their own business in the first place. They still have their Confederate money saved for that moment when the South will rise again. That is why they have no concern that Fed Chairman, Bernanke, is destroying the U.S. Dollar's purchasing power. They don't care. They still have their Confederate money! Let me get back to my points as I have taken a detour that is sure to offend some.
Since our enemies of war have been defined as "Muslims" by the Republicans, not just "terrorists", we are to be at war with Muslims as that who attacked us. You could carry that logic to an even farther extreme by saying they were men not women and so we must be at war with all men. You see once they define the enemy all are expected to be against them. They used President Obama's middle name "Hussein" to demonize him further as an attempted link to Muslims and therefore terrorists, our enemy. You can see the absurdity of this linkage, but it fooled about 40% of the population into believing President Obama is Muslim.
So for the next 2 years you will hear we are at war with the President and his "Socialist agenda". The Democrats must master the language of war if they are going to get the upper hand here. You see for Republican leaders they really are at war and being a peace maker will get you killed when the other side wants to be in war with you. Let's just face it, they have been rewarded for being at war with this President. Let's see what Democrats have learned in the coming months and years. I think it is not in their DNA to be at war and therefore President Obama may be a one term President after all.
The economic data released today was one of the best months we have seen in a long time. Yet, so far today, the market response has been muted with the Dow down a few points as well as the S&P and the Nasdaq. here's the highlights of the data.
The Unemployment rate for Oct. remained at 9.6%. Over 159,000 Private sector jobs were added in October. This makes 10 straight months of Private Sector job creation has occurred. That makes over 1.5 million jobs created so far in the past year.
Non Farm payrolls increased 151,000 jobs for October. Hourly Earnings increased 0.2%, while the Average workweek increased to 34.3 hours in October from 34.2 hours for Sept.
Pending Home Sales data will be released in 15 minutes and later this afternoon, Consumer Credit data will be released.
The Dow is down about 13 points right now as I publish this post.
So Sen. Mitch McConnell through down the gauntlet again to President Obama stating he has several choices, change course or double down, keep increasing the size of government, continue the bailouts, etc. Blah, blah blah! He has clearly restated again today that he wants President Obama to be a one term President and that is the Republicans number one Goal.
So, he really wants to stop spending taxpayer money, but have you ever heard him say he wants the Fed to stop throwing taxpayers dollars for continuing zero interest rates and inflating the Bond market and the Stock market? Nope, not one word on it, nor any word by any serious Republican political leader out there, other than Ron Paul. But they are buying toxic assets and propping up the Banks and the wealthy business leaders every day and we don't hear a peep.
It is all about retaining power over the American people and minimizing the choices Americans have. We have some serious problems here folks and so far, 2 days after the election where Americans were trying to say to the politicians, stop the bickering and solve the economic problems and create jobs, and what do we hear, silence from this Republican party leader who made saying No, an art form. Sen. McConnell has been rewarded for this behavior when the Republicans won the election, so he is, in fact, doubling down, as they say in Black Jack. He is going to try twice as much as before.
Meanwhile, the Fed has all but guaranteed that they will keep everything propped up so people "feel better" and start to spend again. Friends, this is going to have a bad ending for everyone and the politicians are going to be indifferent because they get their paychecks from the wealthy and their lobbyists, who do their bidding. This is a very bad thing. We will all become slaves, as the little we have saved, will be destroyed.
Stock market pump today worth 215 points on the Dow, but Gold went up over $36/ounce to $1381/ounce. Do you really have more purchasing power? Nope. It's an illusion. Oh, and the debt can never be paid off in this manner. The Fed is creating more instability through its use of smoke and mirrors to make us all believe things are getting better.
First some local comments and then a broader National view on the elections last night. So called Liberal California defeated the Proposition to legalize Pot. It could have contributed tax money some estimate in the Billions, to alleviate a shortfall in tax receipts, but it didn't pass. So I don't want to hear anymore about "liberal California" or phrases like "Left Coast." If we were so liberal we would have passed the legalizing pot measure!
Jerry Brown beat Meg Whitman for Governor and Barbara Boxer held her seat for a 4th term. I expected Boxer to win but not Jerry Brown. I personally liked Meg Whitman because she was smart, a very good person and had good common sense. She was perceived not as warm and friendly and approachable for people, but any who knew her, know that she just wasn't a typical politician and she wasn't a phony. She was and is a genuine person who I have a lot of respect for. I knew her when she worked at Bain & Co. at the same time Mitt Romney also was at Bain. I like him a lot too and he is very smart. Bain & Co. was my client for many years and they had a crop of Senior Partners that were and are brilliant.
Nationally, the election unfolded as was expected. The Republicans won the House in a big wave taking many moderate Democrats with them and returning those States to the Republican control. The Tea Party had a respectable night getting about 50% of those races they were competing in. But what does this mean for the country going forward, as the Senate remains in Democratic control? It means that many problems will remain unsolved. If you are looking for legislation coming out of the House that will reverse Obama's policies, it isn't going to happen. The Senate will not pass anything the House sends over, that the Democrats don't believe in, just like the 420 bills the Republicans stopped from passage in the Senate with the filibuster. There is a short window to pass some key legislation from those 420 bills awaiting Senate approval, if the Democrats push some in the lame duck session. But that will take some guts. And I don't know if they have found their balls yet. Maybe Sen. Harry Reid did, as he was reelected for 6 more years, and he doesn't have to worry much now about reelection.
Time will tell but I don't see much changing by the politicians. I see gridlock, not the good kind, but the bad kind.
That's right! No other commentary is important. Today you must VOTE, if you care at all about the country and your future. I don't even care who you vote for. But I do care whether you vote or not. Where else can you enjoy the freedom to go broke, bankrupt or lose your job, than right here in the good ole USA. So if you are unemployed, you need to vote. IF you are employed, you need to vote. If you are self employed, you need to vote. If you don't like what the politicians have done with their authority, you need to vote. And if you like what the politicians have done with their authority, you need to vote. Otherwise, no one wants to hear you bitch from today on, because you don't count nor does your opinion!
Data released this morning on economic indicators were as follows. Personal Income came in at -0.1%, while Personal Spending came in at +0.2%. The ISM Index for october came in at 56.9, which is up from September's reading of 54.4 and Construction Spending surprisingly came in at +0.5% from an August revised reading of -0.2%. The ISM Index measures Manufacturing activity.
So overall these numbers were mixed. The most negative ones were the Personal Spending numbers, as expectations were for a reading of +0.4%. The most positive was the Construction Spending data as they had expected a negative -0.7% and instead the number came in at +0.5%.
The question, as always, is whether we can really believe these numbers. I will leave that up to you.
I thought I might also summarize my Mini Poll survey to date. Here are the results to date:
- I'm Optimistic and think things will get better. 18% - I'm Pessimistic and think things will get worse. 61% - I'm neutral and think things will stay about the same. 21%
I will set the results back to zero and see how it changes going forward so please vote again next visit.
In the mean time, the Dow rose this morning to close to its 52 week high. The 52 week high is 11,258 and today so far we hit 11,244. The S&P 500 came very close to 1200 and hit a high of 1195. Tomorrow will be a more neutral day, as we will not know the election results until Wednesday. There is no economic data being released tomorrow because it is election day.
Remember to Vote! Otherwise, don't complain about the country. This is your chance to register your objection or your support.