Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Bloomberg speculation mania and what it means

The latest buzz about the possible Presidential bid by Bloomberg as a third party candidate makes one thing very clear; no one candidate has enough support for President yet to ward off newcomers. The American public hasn't digested Giuliani's entrance into the race and his quick gain over McCain. Then add the recent announcement of Fred Thompson throwing his hat into the ring, and the fact that he hasn't got enough appeal to garner enough support to ward off newcomers. Now Bloomberg, with his $Billions can easily invest $500 Million for his bid for President and never be specifically beholding to special interest groups that he isn't already a beholden. As the polls have indicated each candidate will have about 20-25% of the maximum voters supporting them, with many in the single digits like Ron Paul. Therefore, the key to winning the Party's nomination is in how well they can put together a unique Strategic Plan given the following scenario.

There will not be any clear winners in either party during the Primary process and this means that the candidates for President for each Party will most likely be decided by the "delegates" to the respective Party Conventions, and not directly by the American people. Unless someone emerges to have at least 40% of the vote, it will be an inconclusive Primary with a majority of big States holding their primaries in February. Some of the bigger names like Hillary and Rudy could possibly win some large States, while lesser candidates gain delegates from smaller States. What's key to a winning strategy? It is at the Conventions of each Party, working the floor at the Convention and wooing delegates to turn their loyalties. To do that you need a strong political machine. Currently that puts Hillary in one of the seats and no one candidate in the Republican Party has the machine at this time other than surprisingly, Mitt Romney, even though his numbers are not leading in Polls. Bloomberg will be on the ticket no matter which candidate is put up by each Party. So right now it looks like Hillary for the Democrats, Bloomberg and either Romney or Thompson fro Republicans. Conservatives will not embrace Rudy. So 2 of the three Presidential candidates will be from NY no matter what happens. There will be very interesting Conventions, more along the lines of in the old days where there was uncertainty as to who the candidates for each Party would be. But again, the problem is that it's more like horse trading than consensus building. The winners in those events are the candidates. The losers are the American people. And this is what we call democracy that we want to export to the rest of the world. I am strating to like other systems that seem to work better than ours. Several examples of working Democracies are India, Israel and another is Great Britain., each having its own uniqueness and different from ours, but worth looking into at least to educate oneself. But that is for a different time and I have no idea, as to what would be better system now, but the whole world needs us to put up our best person for President, not our worst, like we did in the last election.

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