Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Dec. 17, 2008: The day after the Fed goes "All in."

So yesterday was a barn burner and the market rose above the 40 day Moving Averages on all 3 Indexes, the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P500. So it would look like we are going to keep going up, Right? Don't believe it. It was best said this morning on CNBC by John Vogel, the Founder of Vanguard, that the Fed is pushing on string. He said they had to do it, but it doesn't make everything good again nor drive people to lend again.

I think we are still in for a rough time in the market. I still consider a conspiracy theory they are doing their best to get consumers to shop for Christmas presents as it can raise all boats. But have you looked at people shopping lately? No one is carrying any bags home. They are just walking in the Malls and stores as if they are on some exercise program.

Near the close yesterday I loaded up on TZA which is the 3x Short trade following small caps. I bought the shares at $53.50. So the gains I had on Monday were wiped out yesterday when the stock dropped over $13/share from the market rise after the Fed announced their unprecedented action. If the market does drop in the next week or after the holiday, these shares will provide unusually high returns. I still own all my SDS ETF Ultra Short shares. Yesterday it went back down to the lows of my last purchase at $81/share and even a little lower settling in at $80/share. I do not plan to sell these shares until I make a good profit on them. This should happen in January, as I believe we will test the lows before Jan. 20th Inauguration of President-Elect Obama.

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