The possible fallacy in the market rise, these past days

There are some fundamental assumptions accounting for the market rise these past few days. The assumption is that with all the bad news out, the market has risen and therefore is real, because the market is about 6 months ahead of the economy. The problem with that assumption is that included in that belief is that the end of the bad news is close in. That's what's wrong.

Today's ISM Manufacturing index came in at 28, which was the lowest it has been in over 30 years. Do you honestly believe we have seen the worst of the layoffs? Do you believe that shoppers saved the day this holiday period? If true that would make a huge difference since the Consumer represents 70% of the economy.

My experience tells me businesses are still shrinking and it will take a long time before that shrinking stops or reverses course. It's really nice to see a 235 point gain on the Dow. But what will the coming weeks and month provide to us? My guess is more of the same. Not trying to rain on any parades. Just trying to call it as I see it. Hope you took some profits if you had them on some short trades or added to your short positions as your day will come.