Monday, April 06, 2009

What's going on in the market right now?


It appears to me what is driving the market is not the Dow 8,000 level but rather where the 50 and 75 day Moving averages are and what range of the Dow are we currently between. Both the Dow and S&P are above the 75 day Moving average but that trend is going down, not up. As I posted recently a chart of the various ranges of the Dow and have added it here today, you can see the range we are in is between a Dow of 7,800 and 9,200. As long as we stay above 7,800 we remain out of the bottom range of 6,400 and 7,800. If we drop and test the 7,800 we could be dropping back to the lower range and then retesting the lows of 6,400 but I do not believe this is going to happen. This is why I bought more shares this morning of TNA at the $19.90/share level.

News will drive the direction of the market, where data looking backwards will not have the impact it had 5 months ago like unemployment data or Factory orders. These pullbacks are opportunities but a frightened investor will simply watch by the sidelines, like a deer in your headlights. This market is not for the weak of heart or those of low risk tolerance. Don't use money you can't afford to buy shares.

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