Saturday, August 01, 2009

Mini Poll summary for July: How long will the recessionl last?

Below is a summary of the Mini Poll data for July as compared to December, January, February, March, April, May and June.

First the question.
How long do you believe this recession will last?

Data for December, then January, February, March, April, May, June and July:
Mid 2009 4%, 17%, 10%, 12%, 4%, 7%, 3%, 2%
End 2009 35%, 25%, 24%, 21%, 25%, 11%, 6%, 14%
Mid 2010 15%, 13%, 12%, 3%, 33%, 19%, 14%, 7%
End 2010 15%, 10%, 4%, 18%, 15%, 15%, 9%, 12%
Mid 2011 12%, 17%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 2%
End 2011 8%, 0%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 7%
Mid 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 3%, 2%, 7%, 0%, 0%
End 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 0%, 0%, 19%, 29%, 33%
Much Longer than the choices you have provided 0%, 0%, 10%, 12%, 0%, 11%, 14%, 12%
We are going to be in a Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%

If I summarize by Year:
2009 39%, 42%, 34%, 33%, 29%, 18%, 9%, 16%
2010 30%, 23%, 16%, 21%, 48%, 34%, 23%, 19%
2011 20%, 17%, 20%, 6%, 8%, 8%, 12%, 9%
2012 0%, 0%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 26%, 29%, 33%
Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%

Sample size for December was 26, for January 48 votes, for February 51 votes, for March 39 votes, for April 48 votes, for May 27 votes, June 35 votes and July 42 votes.

The major change seems to be the change in the year 2012. This validates the Consumer Confidence numbers for June, as they dropped from 54.8 in May to a 49.3 in June and 46.6 in July. Do you see a trend here?! That's a 3 Month drop in Consumer Confidence at a time when Retailers are deciding what to order for Christmas from Manufacturers. It does not bode well for the holiday season this year for Retailers and the recovery.

As I said last month, as Unemployment increases so does despair! Feel free to click on my comments button below this post and add some personal examples to what you see daily that has you thinking how the economy is doing. Thanks for voting. I will now drop the Mid 2009 choice since we have past that data point.

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