Consumer Confidence (or the lack thereof!)

This morning Consumer Confidence data for August was released. Before I tell you what it was, you probably can guess what it was. First, July's data. It was revised from 59.5 to 59.2. Expectations for August were for it to come in at 52.0, a significant drop from July. But what was not expected was just how bad it would really be. Are you ready for it? Well it came in at 44.5! That is a huge drop.

In spite of all the hype in the stock market these past week or two that these are the time to be buying, Consumers are telling us exactly how they think this economy is doing. The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant.

Below is a chart from WallStreetCheatSheets which shows this data from 1985 to May of 2011. You can see where this month's data would be on this chart as I have placed a red X on where it came in. There is also a Table which shows averages over a number of years to put this data in context.


Let's face it, anything less than 50 means that the data is measuring Consumer's Lack of Confidence. That is running at 100-44.5=55.5! Now I have some stocks I want to sell ya, as they are cheap right now, right!?

Mini Poll summary for July: How long will the recessionl last?

Below is a summary of the Mini Poll data for July as compared to December, January, February, March, April, May and June.

First the question.
How long do you believe this recession will last?

Data for December, then January, February, March, April, May, June and July:
Mid 2009 4%, 17%, 10%, 12%, 4%, 7%, 3%, 2%
End 2009 35%, 25%, 24%, 21%, 25%, 11%, 6%, 14%
Mid 2010 15%, 13%, 12%, 3%, 33%, 19%, 14%, 7%
End 2010 15%, 10%, 4%, 18%, 15%, 15%, 9%, 12%
Mid 2011 12%, 17%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 2%
End 2011 8%, 0%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 7%
Mid 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 3%, 2%, 7%, 0%, 0%
End 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 0%, 0%, 19%, 29%, 33%
Much Longer than the choices you have provided 0%, 0%, 10%, 12%, 0%, 11%, 14%, 12%
We are going to be in a Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%

If I summarize by Year:
2009 39%, 42%, 34%, 33%, 29%, 18%, 9%, 16%
2010 30%, 23%, 16%, 21%, 48%, 34%, 23%, 19%
2011 20%, 17%, 20%, 6%, 8%, 8%, 12%, 9%
2012 0%, 0%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 26%, 29%, 33%
Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%

Sample size for December was 26, for January 48 votes, for February 51 votes, for March 39 votes, for April 48 votes, for May 27 votes, June 35 votes and July 42 votes.

The major change seems to be the change in the year 2012. This validates the Consumer Confidence numbers for June, as they dropped from 54.8 in May to a 49.3 in June and 46.6 in July. Do you see a trend here?! That's a 3 Month drop in Consumer Confidence at a time when Retailers are deciding what to order for Christmas from Manufacturers. It does not bode well for the holiday season this year for Retailers and the recovery.

As I said last month, as Unemployment increases so does despair! Feel free to click on my comments button below this post and add some personal examples to what you see daily that has you thinking how the economy is doing. Thanks for voting. I will now drop the Mid 2009 choice since we have past that data point.

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq: UPDATE

So why did I make such a fuss about the numbers in my previous posting for July U.S. Fatalities. I'll answer that question. Because the number that was first reported was 78 and not the 81 from the revised reporting, it allowed the Bush Administration to say that JULY was the lowest month of the war this year. You see, the previous "lowest" month this year was both February and March, BOTH WITH 81 reported deaths. By not reporting the 3 in July that were added on August 2nd for the July period, it gave the Adminstration propaganda to mislead both the Congress and the American people. But some of us are watching and reporting the truth for all to see the sham. Shame, shame on President Bush/Cheney and their team of "yes" men. Did you listen to the Larry King interview of Vice President Cheney? Can you believe he could lie like that so easily? I do. He has no honor, nor does President Bush. We need to pursue charges against them AFTER they leave office, if you believe the excuse Congress has cited, "there is no time now left to impeach them."

U.S. fatalities for July 2007

U.S. Fatalities for July totals 78. This compares to 43 for July in 2006. This is almost double that of last year. You are already hearing claims that things are getting better in Iraq from the "surge" strategy, and they are claiming this is coming from harsh critics of the war. Here's the data for July for the past 4 years:

July 2004 54
July 2005 54
July 2006 43
July 2007 78

The chart to the left shows the 4 year totals for the same period Aug-July of each year. Below is the actual data from the chart:

Aug 2003-Jul. 2004 662
Aug. 2004-Jul. 2005 883
Aug. 2005-Jul. 2006 779
Aug. 2006-Jul. 2007 1078


Let there be no doubt as to the trend in U.S Fatalities. Some things may be getting better in Iraq. But the question remains, for whom are things getting better? It certainly isn't for American soldiers and it isn't for most Iraqis. It is only good for those who make money by continuing the war.

As I said in June's posting on U.S. Fatalities, referring to Rep. King (R) from NY:

"when asked do you think (Rep. King) things will be better by September? Rep. King said, "By September we should 'START' to hear things are getting better in Iraq." This is a clue of the strategy that will be employed by the Administration and those sympathizers like Senator Joe Lieberman. The word "start" is the key word to focus on. This most assuredly will mean they will ask for more time, as the strategy is "beginning to work".

Well it is already happening as we enter into the month of August. Listen to the news and the propaganda. Remember, THERE IS NO MILITARY SOLUTION IN IRAQ! Today, Rep. John Murtha will attach a bill to the funding bill that asks that the troops be brought home starting in 60 days. Let's see who votes in the affirmative for that amendment. I'll be watching, will you?