Thursday, October 15, 2009

Dow closes at 10,000:What's up now?

The big question of the day is whether a Dow over 10,000 is a sustainable level. As I look at the chart above, I see it will not last. If you click on the chart and make it larger, you will notice the downtrend red line crosses just above 10,000 on the Dow. So technically, we have not broken through this resistance level but we are about as close as it gets.

Earnings are still coming out and we aren't even 1/3 of the way through reporting. Today, Google reports as does IBM and AMD. Thee is definitely a fight for direction here between the Bulls, who appear to have unlimited government funding to firms like Goldman Sachs, and the Bears, who appear to be fighting on a much smaller scale. Unemployment claims dropped a bit this week to 515,000 lost jobs. Everyone hails this as good news as it isn't as bad as it has been. But I'm sorry, we aren't adding new jobs, we're still losing them at a clip of over 500,000 a week. Someone think that is good?

I will not proclaim we are going higher until I see the data. That would be a solid breakthrough of the red resistance line on my chart. If we move only slightly up and then pullback and stay below the line, we will have that healthy correction we need. Stay tuned!

Still think everything is much better because the Dow is over 10,000? Then read this on foreclosures from Yahoo news: WASHINGTON – The number of households caught up in the foreclosure crisis rose more than 5 percent from summer to fall as a federal effort to assist struggling borrowers was overwhelmed by a flood of defaults among people who lost their jobs.
The foreclosure crisis affected nearly 938,000 properties in the July-September quarter, compared with about 890,000 in the prior three months, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac Inc. That puts foreclosure-related filings on a pace to hit about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year.
Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble. While the economy is likely out of recession, the unemployment rate — now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent — isn't expected to peak until the middle of next year.

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