Thursday, October 29, 2009

Market outlook for Oct. 30, 2009: Up, but within a tight range. UPDATE

Today, the Dow surged up almost 200 points to close at 9962. With the Dow rise, the volume today was less than yesterday's volume, not exactly an impressive and convincing move. As you can see in the 3 year Dow chart above, we are actually still in that narrow wedge between the Red line and the Blue line. We could still be there in one month, which is about the time it could take to breakout either to the upside or the downside. Tomorrow is year end for the Hedge Funds and other funds as well and they want to show their customers they have made them a lot of money back this year. So it is possible again that we go back up over 10,000 tomorrow and stay there through the close. It isn't a big deal as the index is only 38 points below it now. But then next week we get the Unemployment numbers for October.

Speaking of unemployment, Shell Oil announced it was laying off 5,000 workers, US Airways announced they were laying of 1,000 more people. And there are a number of States where government workers are being let go from Wisconsin to Massachusetts to California. More and more cities, towns and Counties are having to lay off workers. many are already heralding the end of the recession, and yet, many feel it's a Depression, as they are out of work. The projected Unemployment doesn't peak according to experts until mid 2010 and it is expected we will then be at 10.5% Unemployment rate.

UPDATE: Pre-market Oct. 30th.
European markets are down in pre-market this morning and the DOW, SP500 and Nasdaq are also all down in pre-market. Oil is down to $79.32/barrel. Gold and Silver are also down slightly as well. The dollar has remained flat in pre-market and could go either way after markets open. But much data points to a lower opening this morning. In site of that, I believe the Dow will close over the 10,000 level, the S&P 500 will close over 1090 level and the Nasdaq will close over the 2100 level. I say this because many Funds use today as their year end. They will try and push the market selectively higher to get the numbers up near the close. It's all about manipulation to attract customers for these Funds and also payout bonuses. Bah, humbug!

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