Saturday, October 24, 2009

"W" patterns as a way to help decide trading decisions

I decided to add one more Dow intraday chart from yesterday with analysis to help my readers see what if anything there is to predict for Monday's market action. In the chart above, I have drawn another 2 "W" patterns. The first is the larger "W" pattern which was shown in yesterday's posting. Then in the last 2 hours of trading another minor one was formed. You will notice that this pattern is also a slanted down "W" pattern. This gives a clue that on Monday, the market may complete this pattern by at least going lower sometime near the open. It does not mean that the market will not rise. But it may complete this pattern before it does. Again Volume was higher yesterday than on Thursday and that is not typical. When you look at Volume over multiple years on a daily basis, a usual pattern is that Monday is the lowest volume and then it picks up each day through Thursday and Friday volume drops off. This pattern holds true except when the Friday is Options expiration, which was a week ago Friday on Oct. 16th. As you can see from the chart below, it too had the largest volume day of the week. Yesterday's volume was also the highest of the week, which means to me the drop down had some momentum to it.

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