Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Where's the market headed? Some facts to consider.

I was trying to use news items to see the probability of the market going up versus down going forward. So I have listed all the things I could remember that would affect the market negatively and which would positively. Here’s a glance at them:


-Stock market rallied this past year and recovered 70% of the losses from the lows.
-The SubPrime mortgage problem has run most of its course.
-The divisiveness of the healthcare reform Bill has abated and the Bill passed.
-Personal Savings has increased this past 1 1/2year
-The Dollar has rebounded from its low after the Euro has dropped significantly.
-The US Auto companies have been restructured to be more competitive and profitable
-The Banking system has been saved from total collapse and Deposits are insured by the government, for up to $500,000 per couple.
-Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were saved from the brink of collapse
-The Stimulus plan has created some jobs.
-GDP was 3% in the first quarter
-Corporate earnings for the most part beat expectations (but expectations were set low last year. Top line growth has been muted but cost savings have led the way for earnings improvement.


-The debt level of the US is astronomical at a significant % of GDP
-The EU has had near collapse of Country debt for Greece and is threatened by similar issues from Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy.
-The Gulf Oil crisis is destroying habitat and livelihoods in the Gulf for years to come
-North Korea has threatened war against the South and us over the Missile torpedo on the South Korean ship
-The National debt will be increasingly difficult to pay as interest rates rise.
-People are afraid and causing GOLD and Silver to rise dramatically as they don’t trust currencies.
-Stock market is poised for a Super Grand cycle correction according to Elliott Wave Theory.
-New Home Construction is still down and Home Prices are continuing to go down.
-The CPI is near zero with all the Stimulus money throw at it and we are in Disinflation now and headed towards Deflation.
-Bank lending has tightened significantly and 3 Month Libor (rate the Banks charge each other for lending) rates have increased.
-Official Unemployment rate remains high at 9.9% while the unofficial rate, which includes those looking for Full time work from part-time workers is at 20%.
-Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
-Issues with Israel for Obama Administration over building Settlements
-Latest incident of Israel raiding the flotilla of boats bringing supplies to Gaza
-Issues with Iran and Nuclear materials for possible bomb building.
-Terrorism: A host of attempts to terrorize us from Detroit bound passenger lighting his pants on fire to the Times Square attempted car bomb and many others trying to harm the US.
-The Tea Party movement
- Political divisiveness between Democrats and Republicans
-Arizona Immigrant laws newly enacted.
-Financial regulation not yet passed to prevent Too Big to Fail banks.
-Stock market looks poised for another selloff
-Now Fixed Rate Mortgage owners are going into foreclosure and rate appears to be increasing.
-Commercial Property is now feeling the problem with businesses closing and there are now an increasing number of For Lease properties For Sale. The U.S. national office vacancy rate of 17.3% was the highest in 16 years.
-Credit Default Swaps still are an issue and have not been resolved since the crash of 2008.
-Most Fixed Income retirees are getting in more and more of a financial bind and may have significant problems financially surviving in their retirement.

That’s my list. What does it say to you? Do you think that these can be overcome and drive the market higher this year or next? To me the Negatives far outweigh the Positives and my inclination is that bodes poorly for any chance the markets will stay at current levels for any prolonged time. The best hope I can see is that we won't go as low as I have predicted, which is below 4,000 to as low 2,500 on the Dow. Now that is truly scary!

Do you have any items you want to add either on the Positives or negative lists? Please feel free to make a comment with any additions you have.

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