Saturday, July 24, 2010

Economic Indicators for the week of July 26th

Here's the rundown of data expected this coming week and their relative importance as to where the economy is headed. Three of the more important indicators this week will be Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders and GDP. Here's the breakdown by day:

Monday, July 26th
10:00am EST. New Home Sales for June. Forecast is 295K and the prior month reading was 300K.

Tuesday, July 27th
10:00am EST. Consumer Confidence for July. Forecast is 51.0 and the prior month was 52.9.

Wednesday, July 28th
8:30am EST. Durable Goods Orders for June. Forecast is +1.0% and the prior month was -0.6%
8:30am EST. Durable Goods orders ex Transportation. Forecast is +0.5% and prior month was +1.6%
2:00pm EST Fed's Beige Book.

Thursday, July 29th
8:30am EST. Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast is for 450K and the prior week was 464K.
8:30am EST. Continuing Claims. Forecast is for 4.550 Million and prior week was 4.487 Million
2:00pm EST. Fed's Beige Book.

Friday, July 30th
8:30am EST. GDP for Q2. Forecast is for 3.0% and Prior was 2.7%. Market is expecting 2.5%.
8:30am EST. Chain Deflator for Q2. Forecast is 0.7% and prior period was 1.1%
8:30am EST. Employment Cost Index for Q2. Forecast is 0.5% and prior period was 0.6%
9:45am EST. Chicago PMI for July. Forecast is for 58.5 and prior month was 59.1
9:55am EST. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment for July. Forecast is 67.5 and prior month was 66.5

That's the rundown for the coming week. I will try and update my site each day with the actual data. As for the market reaction it is difficult to predict without any actual data but I will give it a try. If GDP comes in 2.0-2.5% the market will react quite negatively. If it comes in at the expected 3.0% or better, it will be claimed as a victory and the market will have a positive reaction. However the Durable Goods orders and Consumer Confidence will have more of an effect as they are predictors of the present and future, not the past. So if I were weighting the data this week, I would tend to weight these later data points more heavily as market direction predictors. Durable goods orders are expected to rise so anything less than that will be negative. As for CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, it is expected to drop only slightly from 52.9 to 51. If we get any reading below 51, the market will react quite negatively. Therefore Tuesday is the most important data this week in my view. Stay tuned for the results and please come back.

Labels: , , , , , ,


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Charles, thanks for laying our all the expected data.
What I find strange is that unemployment keeps inching up, companies go bankrupt, housing is still tanking, and the media is able to put a positive spin on it all.
In my book if some of your competitors aren't around any more, then your earnings should rise.
And if small businesses can't get loans (most can't) then how will unemployment ever get solved?

12:12 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Technorati Profile