Who has the cards and who will win in a showdown between Russia and the U.S. over Georgia

We are sending some war ships to Georgia with "Humanitarian Aid", according to U.S. officials, as we recently watched the Russians capture some Georgian soldiers near their port, blindfold them and took them away along with their HumVees. When the U.S. gets there Russian ships will be there too. How does this play out? If Russia does anything to block U.S. ships from arriving in port, who wins? The answer- Russia. As tensions rise between this former superpower and the U.S. which thinks it is a superpower but has no teeth, the result will be a rise in Oil prices. Russia wins in that event as their sole national product, oil, has lost a 21% return on their oil revenues in the past 2 months. They have everything to gain and it appears from their actions, nothing to lose by keeping the tension continuing. So much for President Bush's read of Putin.

Georgia/Russian Conflict? Now Poland provides the incendiary fuel

This morning another news item about our deteriorating relationship with Russia caught my eye. When you read it remember the Cuban Missile crisis during the Presidency of JFK and how we felt. We must not do the same to Russia and must be more sensitive to their concerns. We can’t bomb our war to peace. We must talk and respect where others are coming from. In this situation we have walked in the Russian shoes and it did not feel good. We were all scared of a Nuclear confrontation. President Bush is bringing this past back with his failed Foreign policies and expansion into the former Soviet Republic.

We need to be more predictable in a positive way around the world. Right now we are very predictable in a negative way, we put sticks in our key relationship’s eyes and ask them not to complain about their pain. Shame on us. What arrogance as a nation that once was the hope for the world. If we continue our policy here we will let those former Soviet Republics down and they will be on their own. Yes they want to feel safer by cozying up to the west, but in reality there is only so much we can do and are willing to do.

Here is the news item and the link to it:

Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles
By JIM HEINTZ, Associated Press Writer

MOSCOW - A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.

The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations.

Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the United States says is aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations. Moscow, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force.

"Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent," Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax.

At a news conference earlier Friday, Nogovitsyn had reiterated Russia's frequently stated warning that placing missile-defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic would bring an unspecified military response. But his subsequent reported statement substantially stepped up a war of words.

U.S. officials have said the timing of the deal was not meant to antagonize Russian leaders at a time when relations already are strained over the recent fighting between Russia and Georgia over the separatist Georgian region of South Ossetia.

Russian forces went deep into Georgia in the fighting, raising wide concerns that Russia could be seeking to occupy parts of its small, pro-U.S. neighbor, which has vigorously lobbied to join NATO, or even to force its government to collapse.

Under the agreement that Warsaw and Washington reached Thursday, Poland will accept an American missile interceptor base.

"We have crossed the Rubicon," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, referring to U.S. consent to Poland's demands after more than 18 months of negotiations.

Washington says the planned system, which is not yet operational, is needed to protect the U.S. and Europe from possible attacks by missile-armed "rogue states" like Iran. The Kremlin, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force and warns it will worsen tensions.

In an interview on Poland's news channel TVN24, Tusk said the United States agreed to help augment Poland's defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the Eastern European country.

He said the deal also includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations to come to each other's assistance "in case of trouble."

That clause appeared to be a direct reference to Russia.

Poland has all along been guided by fears of a newly resurgent Russia, an anxiety that has intensified with Russia's offensive in Georgia. In past days, Polish leaders said that fighting justified Poland's demands that it get additional security guarantees from Washington in exchange for allowing the anti-missile base on its soil.

Georgia/Russian conflict discussion

I came across a Blog today which had commented a few days ago about the conflict. It was titled, "The American Portrait" and read Ryan's post about the conflict and then added my comment. Here it is and my comments:

MONDAY, AUGUST 11, 2008
The Puppet Master

If you're one of the few people who still thinks Dmitri Medvedev is calling the shots in Russia, you'd better think again. When Russia invaded Georgia, President Bush (and rightfully so) issued the United States' response to the move, calling it "unacceptable". Condi Rice has played her role as Secretary of State (almost like a prime minister) by doing most of the "behind the scenes" work during the negotiations.

When Russia gives its response to the United States, Vladimir Putin of all people is the one to give it. He criticized the United States for portraying Georgia as the victim and for airlifting Georginan troops from Iraq. Shouldn't Medvedev have given that response? A prime minister in a secondary leadership role giving the official public response to the leader of another nation? Sounds fishy to me.

Europe and the United States need to learn that Russia's steady ascent to increased aggression over the last decade is due solely to Putin, an old school KGB man. Putin in some regards is a full blown dictator without an official title. As the world is prepared to give Russia a good 'ole slap on the wrist, this just seems a little too 1939ish for me.

My Response and Comment:

Ryan, I think you are missing some history here. Since the Bush 41 Presidency, the U.S. has been embarking on a policy of cozying up to former Soviet Countries and wooing them to be a part of NATO. Russia has objected and we have kept pushing.

I don't know if you are old enough but do you remember when Russia did a similar thing in Cuba during the JFK Presidency and how we felt?

I am not a friend of Russia but I am not their enemy either. We have created this mess and it is playing out as predicted given our previous provocative actions. One of the things I am disappointed about is American's immaturity arrogance and lack of accountability when it comes to the consequences of U.S. actions around the world.

It’s never about one person like Putin. All countries share in the accountability for allowing these conditions to be created in the first place.

Just for the record, I am not Russian, nor Georgian, I am American by birth, Italian by decent and a citizen of the World in my spirit. I am a social liberal and fiscal conservative and I voted for Sen. Biden in the Primary.

Charles Amico

The Georgia/Russian conflict: Please explain it to me again?

Today I received an email from Senator Joe Biden's wife on his behalf informing me on his stand regarding this conflict. Here is my reply to the Senator in the form of an email to him and at the bottom I have copied the initial email from his wife:

"Senator, I noticed this in your statement with Senator Lugar back in April, "Russia is clearly trying to provoke the Georgians into an over-reaction that will tarnish Georgia's image in the West. To its great credit, Tbilisi has so far chosen the path of restraint and negotiation, as evidenced by Mr. Saakashvili's magnanimous diplomatic initiative."

I am no expert here, nor do I side with Russia on this, but it seems that President Saakashvili initiated the military action during the Olympics, instead of the heeded advice from you, Senator Lugar and others.

It also seems to me that our strategy for allowing membership into Nato by countries surrounding Russia is provocative in itself. We would not appreciate Chavez of Venezuela building similar alliances with Cuba and other neighbors of ours as we also reacted when Cuba was friendly with Russia and now the Chinese. It feels like we are sticking a sharp stick in the eye of Russia instead of working with them on the issue of Iran, War on Terrorists and things like this conflict.

I know you are busy and most likely haven't the time to respond. I am an average American, a financial supporter of yours again most recently and I am confused by the explanations. Why is it in our interest to cozy up and enter into Alliances like Nato with countries we most likely would not defend with our Blood and Treasure when we have our hands full now and the world knows it.

I appreciate your indulgence Senator. The average person is as confused as I am and this topic needs some time to educate us on this matter and a one page letter, even with links, doesn't do that.

Warmest regards,
Charles Amico
Larkspur, CA"

If the good Senator responds to my inquiry, I will post it here in an Update.

Dear Charles,
I'm sure you have been following the disturbing news regarding Russia's aggressive military tactics in Georgia, begun during the start of the Olympic Games. I wanted to make sure you were the first to read Joe's take on the situation.

Joe penned an op-ed on Georgia for the second time since April, this one in the Financial Times – just now up on their website. In it, titled "Russia Must Stand Down," he outlines the potential consequences of Russia's actions:

By acting disproportionately with a full scale attack on Georgia and seeking the ouster of Georgia's democratically elected President Mikheil Saakashvili, Moscow is jeopardizing its standing in Europe and the broader international community – and risking very real practical and political consequences...

Joe identifies what the next steps need to be for all parties involved and clearly summarizes what we could be facing if things do not change – fast:
The only hope for preventing this crisis from becoming a calamity for Russia's relationship with the west is for Moscow to immediately ceasefire, pull back its forces and agree to negotiations brokered by the international community – all steps that the Georgian government has agreed to. If the fighting continues, this moment could emerge as a turning point in the west's relationship with Moscow, and deny Russia the international standing it seeks. That is not the future the United States or Europe want – but it is the future Russia may get if it does not stand down and live up to its responsibilities as a force for progress.

Once again, Joe and Senator Lugar of Indiana were ahead of the curve on this critical issue. In April, they wrote an op-ed in the Washington Times that highlighted what a crucial region of the world this is. In that piece, "Stand up for Georgia," they said:
Georgia has done its part by refusing to overreact and continues to seek a diplomatic solution. The time has come for the trans-Atlantic community to show unity and commitment.

As always, please do not hesitate to share your opinions on this or anything else that matters to you. We appreciate hearing from you. I'll continue to pass along Joe's thoughts on this developing situation.
Sincerely,

Valerie Biden Owens

Genarlow Wilson: A young man of courage and principle wins in Georgia

After many years fighting charges he incurred by a zealous District Attorney relentless prosecution in Georgia of this 17 year old young man, the Georgia Supreme Court ruled to day that he must be set free. Free at last, free at last, thank God he will be free at last!

As a 17 year old, Genarlow had consensual oral sex with a 15 year old. But when they put him in jail he would not cop a plea on a lesser charge and get only a 1 year term, as he didn't want his life labeled as a sex offender. He has been fighting the charges on principle. He has been in jail on a 10 year sentence and is now 21 years old. The Georgia Supreme Court ruled in favor of this young man and in their ruling said he had faced cruel and unusual punishment for this so called crime at the time he was 17. Amen! I am hoping his attorney files charges against the State and gets this young man millions of dollars in compensation and to teach local officials there is a cost for this inappropriate prosecution.

Watch Rush Limbaugh say on his radio show he should have stayed in jail and that the prosecution was correct because it was a split decision.