Sunday, December 21, 2008

Recession or Depression: What's the difference?

I was reading an old book I have had for about 25 years. It is an historical recounting of the conditions in society in the 20's and 30's focusing specifically on the stock market crash of 1929 and then the Great Depression of the 1930's. Yes stock prices for companies like IBM, GM and other top quality names had gone from hundreds of dollars per share, down to the single digits during the Crash and some had committed suicide by jumping out of windows in NY City. But what was surprising to me was that many didn't see any difference in their own surroundings in towns and cities across America, unless they were looking carefully for differences. For example, during the Great Depression there were less trucks on the roads and less cars. There were more people hitchhiking than usual, as many were transients looking for cities and towns where there was work. None noticed that trains had fewer cars attached. Nor did they notice the length of the Unemployment lines, unless they too were looking for work. When and if they were fortunate to go out to a restaurant, there was always an opening in those, where in better times, were filled to capacity and you couldn't even get a reservation.

There were more visible signs in more seedy areas, like the length of the soup kitchen lines and the homeless shelters, which extended around the block from their entrances. Other signs were the number of people applying for any job that had openings with skill sets much higher than were needed for the job. There were more panhandlers in major cities and the migration of those panhandlers to cities in warmer parts of the country. Hospitals were more crowded with people who were sick and had no place to go or live. Doctors helped patients without knowing whether they were going to be paid at all. Remember it lasted a number of years from the stock market Crash of 1929 through 1930, 1931, 1932 and 1933 into 1934.

The real difference between a Depression and a Recession can be boiled down to this. If you are working and secure with some savings and you see the news with high Unemployment, it is most likely that we are in a Recession, even a bad recession, but if it is you who are out of work with not much savings and more insecurity, you are in a Depression. So open your eyes during this holiday season and, if you can, help those less fortunate who need a helping hand, a warm smile and possibly your friendship. You see, their suffering is all around us and, in this season of hope and charity, we must open our hearts and our wallets. Merry Christmas. Donate to your local Food Bank or Homeless Shelter.

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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

How can we turn the ship of this economic crisis? Some suggestions.

As a result of the election of Barack Obama, a new day of hope has been realized. Most Democrats, many Independents and some Republicans now are wishing the President-elect all the best and are wiling to get behind his leadership that will help us out of this Financial and economic meltdown. So we all look for leadership. But we must now start to look within, as the Consumer, that's you and me, can either help resolve these problems or contribute to magnifying them. This can happen when we are not aware of how our individual collective decisions or "herd" mentality is at play.

Right now, no matter where I go, I am asked how I am viewing the economy and financial crisis from my client interactions, business associates, neighbors, friends and family. What I see as a common thread is the fact that fear is present to different degrees by individual, but it is there and influencing daily and future decisions. Some are looking at household expenses and tightening their family's financial belt, Some have choices to make in there daily business decisions, which affects spending patterns now and plan changes in the future that all cut back and contribute to a tightening on a National level. This in turn affects a Global economy.

So how can we all help ourselves out of this mess and give the Obama Administration a better chance of success in getting this ship turned in the right direction? First, being aware of what decisions you are making and how they affect you and your family is the first step. Some do need to cut back as they are spending much more than they are earning. But some that have plenty are also cutting back unnecessarily as it is the herd mentality at work, affecting the economic environment additionally. If you make a good salary and have enough to carry you through some tough times, consider continuing with your current habits as if nothing is really wrong. You will be helping some businesses survive, as well as your community, State and Country. If everyone stops spending any money, the entire system will grind to a halt and it will get much worse.

So as we are approaching a dismal holiday for retailers in general, it is important that the Consumer consider the consequences of their actions and think broader about how they can affect things more positively. Those of us who make contributions to Charity at year end need to do it again, especially this year. The most needy among us will need our help. Research into the elimination of disease still needs our help by our donations. It can help reduce medical costs and health insurance. Public radio will still need your donations as will the Museums.

So as we approach our first holiday of Thanksgiving, there is much to be thankful for. A new President, the first African American to be President, and a change from the Bush Administration policy's is surely something to be thankful for. A family where love is present and learning abounds is a blessing. Having a roof over one's head where you don't have to worry about foreclosure, is a blessing. We can make a big difference with our collective actions but we all need to start being aware of how every decision we make or choose to defer has a consequence for the economy and the well being of our Nation. We can make this holiday season better than what most had expected and this would be a great gift to give the Obama Administration. A few gifts are in order this Christmas and if we all do some shopping rather than a total cutback, it will be a wonderful gift to our new President and the Country. Choose wisely!

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