America leads the world in "Spin"

Don't you just love how good our government officials, Wall St. and the media have become in the "spin" business. An example is today's Initial Jobless Claims numbers. Here are the facts first. Initial Jobless Clams came in at 410,000. Last week the data came in at 388,000. Expectations were for 405,000 and these expectations were published a week ago. I know as I check. One might therefore conclude that the numbers disappointed. In fact the stock market dropped on the news. So here is a Bloomberg.com article on the announcement. See if you can spot the spin. It isn't that difficult.

"Fewer Americans Filed Jobless Claims Over Past Month (Update2)
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By Shobhana Chandra


Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance payments over the past month, indicating the labor market is improving.

The average number of applications for jobless benefits over the past four weeks dropped to 410,750, the lowest level since July 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Claims for the week ended Jan. 1 rose by 18,000 to 409,000, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Firings have been waning in recent weeks, a necessary step toward gains in hiring that will help boost consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. A report tomorrow is projected to show employers added to payrolls in December for a third month as the U.S. expansion gained speed.

“The recovery in the labor market is continuing to move along at a gradual pace,” said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who forecast claims would rise to 410,000. “Employers are getting to the point where they are becoming a little more confident about the strength of the recovery.”

You be the decider!

Weekly Economic indicators for the week of Sept. 20th

Here below is a table of the economic data which will be released this coming week. The most important pieces of data released this week will be from the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on Tuesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and Durable Goods orders on Friday. I will post the actual data as it is released this week and will comment on the stock charts as the week unfolds. Here's the Table of the economic data. Also, don't forget to read my last 2 posts if you haven't yet. One shows historical data on the University of Michigan Sentiment Index over a long period of time.

To view the data more clearly in a larger format, click on it.

Economic data for the week ahead, Sept. 13th

This will be a full week of important economic data being released. I will list them below but here are some of the more important ones that will move the stock markets.

Tuesday is Retail Sales and the NY Fed Empire Mfg Index.
Wednesday is Industrial Production and Import/Export prices
Thursday is the usual Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims but also PPI
Friday will be CPI and Michigan Sentiment

And Friday is also Sept. Options Expiration. So this indeed will be a volatile week. So come here often and see the data as it gets released and any commentary I may make.

Monday, Sept. 13th 11:00am PST
Treasury Budget for Aug. Expectations are for -$104.0 Billion. Last month it was -$103.6 Billion.

Tuesday, Sept 14th 5:30am PST
Retail Sales for Aug. Expectations are for +0.2% and prior month was +0.4%
Retail Sales ex auto for Aug. Expectations are for +0.2% and prior month was +0.2%

Tuesday, Sept 14th 7:00am PST
Business Inventories for July. Expectations are for +0.8% and prior month was +0.3%

Wednesday, Sept. 15th 5:30am PST
NY Fed Empire Mfg Survey for Sept. Expectations are for 5.0 and prior month was 7.1
Export Prices for Aug. Prior month was -0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil. Prior month was -0.3%

Wednesday, Sept. 15th 6:15am PST
Industrial Production for Aug. Expectations are for +0.3% and prior month was +1.0%
Capacity Utilization for Aug. Expectations are for 75.0 and prior month was 74.8

Thursday, Sept. 16th 5:30am PST
Initial Jobless Claims for wk ending 9/11. Expectations are for 440K and prior week was 451K
Continuing Claims. Expectations are for 4.450 Million and prior week was 4.478 Million.
PPI for Aug. Expectations are for +0.3% and prior month was +0.2%
Core PPI for Aug. Expectations are for +0.1% and prior month was +0.3%
Current Account for Q2. Expectations are for -$125 Billion and prior Q1 was -$109.0 Billion

Thursday, Sept. 16th 7:00am PST
Philadelphia Fed for Sept. Expectations are for 0.0 and prior month was -7.7

Friday, Sept. 17th 5:30am PST
CPI for Aug. Expectations are for +0.3% and prior month was +0.3%
Core CPI for Aug. Expectations are for +0.1% and prior month was +0.1%

Friday, Sept. 17th 6:55am PST
Michigan Sentiment Index for Sept. Expectations are for 70.0 and prior month was 68.9

The most important data of the week is Retail Sales on Tuesday. Believe it or not, CPI and PPI are even more important than Initial Jobless Claims. And while normally I would say the Fed data on the NY Mfg Index is also important, I don't trust the Fed in reporting the data accurately as they are into manipulating psychology of Consumers and have been for a while. Much of the data released comes either from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Dept. the Commerce Dept, or the Labor Dept. The only data released I trust as unvarnished and not manipulated is the Univ. of Michigan data on Sentiment on Friday. There you have it!

You will notice that all the expectations are lower than the previous period. That way they can say, "Better than expected". What BS!