Headline reads: Anti-US Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr Cease-Fire in Doubt!

That's right, Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has said the cease-fire he put in place 6 months ago expires on Saturday. He has not said whether he will continue the cease-fire or will just let it end, which has ominous consequences for our troops and the Iraqi government.

I had done a study to see which event most closely correlated to a reduction in Iraq. I checked into the dates of the surge and when we were at full strength. I checked into political statements here at home from the Congress and I checked into the date that Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced the cease fire of his Mahdi Army militia and the single best correlation was with the cease-fire. Which means that if the cease-fire expires, not only will troops be frozen in place and not come home, but we will begin to see those high number of U.S. fatalities that I have reported so often.

Also, from a political perspective, John McCain's stand on the war and the surge will be shot full of holes. It will strengthen Barack Obama's position in the run up to the election. The challenge will be not to believe the B.S. that is sure to fly from the Administration when casualties rise and they press for the case to continue the fight, which is not fighting al-Qaeda but a Civil war between Shia's and Sunni's.

Let's hope, for our troops sake, that the cease-fire is continued. We will know by Saturday! Stay tuned.

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