Headline reads: Anti-US Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr Cease-Fire in Doubt!

That's right, Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has said the cease-fire he put in place 6 months ago expires on Saturday. He has not said whether he will continue the cease-fire or will just let it end, which has ominous consequences for our troops and the Iraqi government.

I had done a study to see which event most closely correlated to a reduction in Iraq. I checked into the dates of the surge and when we were at full strength. I checked into political statements here at home from the Congress and I checked into the date that Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced the cease fire of his Mahdi Army militia and the single best correlation was with the cease-fire. Which means that if the cease-fire expires, not only will troops be frozen in place and not come home, but we will begin to see those high number of U.S. fatalities that I have reported so often.

Also, from a political perspective, John McCain's stand on the war and the surge will be shot full of holes. It will strengthen Barack Obama's position in the run up to the election. The challenge will be not to believe the B.S. that is sure to fly from the Administration when casualties rise and they press for the case to continue the fight, which is not fighting al-Qaeda but a Civil war between Shia's and Sunni's.

Let's hope, for our troops sake, that the cease-fire is continued. We will know by Saturday! Stay tuned.

To read the entire article, click here.

U.S. Fatalities for January 2008

The good news is that U.S. Casualties are down again for the 4th consecutive month. The bad news is that our brave soldiers are still getting killed each month. Any deaths are unacceptable in my view. I think if I had a son, daughter, wife or loved one there I would be on pins and needles every day they were away.

This latest month had 40 deaths as compared to the following numbers for January in previous years:
2007 83
2006 62
2005 107
2004 47

We need a President who will bring the troops home starting when they are elected. Remember, the cleric Sadr promised a cease fire until the end of March and that time will soon be here. The war will become front and center again I am afraid to say. It will not be Al-Qaeda, it will be a continuation of the Civil war, which was never civil. It will be Sunni against Shia, Shia against Sunni, and we will be in the middle.

N.H. Democratic debate on Iraq-What a disappointment

What disappointment from Hillary, Barack and Edwards. All 3 said they wouldn't promise all the troops home from Iraq by 2013. I need to pick a new candidate and so do you or we will be there indefinitely. The only candidates who said they would have all the troops home from Iraq before 2013 were Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kusinich and Gravel. Anyone voting for a Democratic candidate in the primaries, needs to reconsider one of these 5, who will bring the troops home. I just was shocked at the front leaders response and how Hillary found it useful not to stake out any popular position for ear of offending someone.

Biden and Richardson had no problem with bringing the troops home as soon as they can after being elected President. They also had bold ideas about saving Social Security. Biden wants to solve the problem by raising the Caps on when people pay taxes. Currently at $97,000, Biden wants all income above $97,000 taxed because anyone who makes $97,000 or under is taxed on all their income and why should those making more not be taxed on all their income as well. They don't need the break if they are making Millions of dollars according to Biden. I agree with him on that.

Biden, Dodd and Richardson are the only hope of anyone wanting to end the war and picking a candidate that could make a good President. I believe Biden and Dodd could get both Independent voters and some Republican voters as well. Yesterday, Biden got his soft-partition non-binding resolution approved that favors a loose Federation in Iraq of three separate regions, one Shia controlled, one Sunni controlled and the other Kurdish controlled regions, where each would share in Oil revenues and the country would have a weak but effective central government. Biden garnered Republican and Democratic support with a winning resolution 75 to 23 votes. We need a President that can work with Republicans and Biden did.

If we are going to have any effect to bring the troops home we must choose, and loudly support with money and our voices, either Biden, Dodd or Richardson. If anyone polls us we must tell the media why we have changed our minds on the front-runners. There is no choice for Republicans with a serious candidate who has a chance to win, who will stop the war and bring the troops home other than Congressman Ron Paul.

General Petraeus comments about Sunni insurgents

In his first news briefing, General Petraeus reveals some interesting tidbits about the Sunni insurgent groups. To quote AP writer Lauren Frayer from Baghdad, and General Petraeus's news conference "Last year, 11 Sunni insurgent groups working through mediators offered to immediately stop attacks on American-led forces in Iraq if the Shiite-led government and Washington set a two-year timetable for withdrawing all coalition forces from the country, according to insurgent and government officials."

She quotes the following from an Arab newspaper, "The Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported last year that U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad met seven times with insurgent representatives in late 2005 and early 2006. But the extremists broke off the contacts in April 2006 after the U.S. side failed to respond to a series of demands."

She also says, "One of Iraq's most expansive militias — the Mahdi Army of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — appears to have set aside its weapons under intense government pressure to lend support to the Baghdad security plan.

Mahdi militiamen also have allowed Iraqi authorities to try to protect at least 1 million pilgrims heading to Karbala, about 50 miles south of Baghdad."

Folks, that was last year and now fits the timetable the Democrats are pushing for. Seems like everyone, including Sunni insurgents, are on the same timetable page except President Bush and VP Cheney and whatever Republican Senators they can arm twist to keep in line. Senator Chuck Hagel, again braving the White House scorn, has positioned the possibility for Republicans of the unthinkable- Impeaching President Bush, as he has lost his faith in this Commander in Chief, as many have. I never had any faith in the first place, so it is difficult to lose something you never had.

The good General has put before us the fact that we are going to have to deal and resolve issues with folks like Al-Sadr, as I said Nov. 26th in this post titled, "Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and the Shiites in Iraq. Petraeus's comments tell me Al-Sadr is entering the political process more in a big way than before and he will be at the table as a force to reckon with. I have read somewhere that while he has gone to Iran as we are building up forces, he does not want Iranian control over the Iraqi's Shia population. We shall see.

Kurds caught in the middle -question deployment to Baghdad

Baghdad deployment of Kurds seems a bad thing to many Kurds. They wonder why they are being put in the middle of sectarian violence between Sunni's and Shia's. They wonder aloud that if American forces can't stop the violence, then how can they. They believe this deployment will do nothing but draw them into the conflict.

What they say makes sense to me. Read more about one reporters account from BBC News by clicking here.

A formula for Guaranteed Iraqi success!

Here's another thought about Iraqi's standing up, so we can stand down. We need to turn over the Green Zone to the Iraqi's to protect. If they can't protect even one square mile, they will never protect the country. The Iraqi politicians, Sunni, Shiite and Kurds, all have a vital interest in being protected. It has been shown that in order to solve large problems, any group that has differences, (and the 3 Iraqi groups definitely have a dog in this fight,) needs to work together to solve small problems, then with the experience they have gained and the increased trust can solve larger problems. So by having all 3 groups responsible for security in the Green Zone, there is a chance that once their lives are entrusted to each other they might compromise and rise to the occasion. If not, and they can't secure the Green Zone, the leaders will eventually be killed and a new government will need to be formed but in any event, the current stalemate will be resolved. :)