Headline reads: Anti-US Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr Cease-Fire in Doubt!

That's right, Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has said the cease-fire he put in place 6 months ago expires on Saturday. He has not said whether he will continue the cease-fire or will just let it end, which has ominous consequences for our troops and the Iraqi government.

I had done a study to see which event most closely correlated to a reduction in Iraq. I checked into the dates of the surge and when we were at full strength. I checked into political statements here at home from the Congress and I checked into the date that Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced the cease fire of his Mahdi Army militia and the single best correlation was with the cease-fire. Which means that if the cease-fire expires, not only will troops be frozen in place and not come home, but we will begin to see those high number of U.S. fatalities that I have reported so often.

Also, from a political perspective, John McCain's stand on the war and the surge will be shot full of holes. It will strengthen Barack Obama's position in the run up to the election. The challenge will be not to believe the B.S. that is sure to fly from the Administration when casualties rise and they press for the case to continue the fight, which is not fighting al-Qaeda but a Civil war between Shia's and Sunni's.

Let's hope, for our troops sake, that the cease-fire is continued. We will know by Saturday! Stay tuned.

To read the entire article, click here.

U.S. Fatalities for Dec. 2007 at a low for 2007, 2006 and 2005

This indeed is great news for the families and friends of those serving. Hats need to be removed in honor of all those that perished in 2007 and the previous years of this war. War is senseless and this war particularly was not needed.

December 2007 U.S Fatalities totalled 23. This is the lowest month of fatalities for our soldiers since March 2004 which had 20. My hat is off to General Petreaus and the soldiers, who tirelessly faced and pursued the bad guys. I was a skeptic that the surge would work, but coupled with a cease fire annunced by the Sadr Militia and the Cleric Sadr himself having asked his Militia to stand down for 6 months, we have experienced a calming in Iraq. The six months comes to an end at the end of March. Hopefully the cease fire will continue.

Iraq needs to be front and center on our minds in the upcoming primaries

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq are down for the 3rd consecutive month, taking Iraq out of the Presidential debate for both parties as the Iowa caucus draws near. This is a very good news for U.S. troops and the families of our soldiers.

It does however cloud the situation in terms of who will get us out of Iraq now that it is off the topic in the last remaining days of 2007 and early 2008. Let us not forget, we still have 160,000 troops in theater and we need to stop the war we have chosen in Iraq and fortify our forces in Afghanistan so that we don't lose the victory we nearly had several years ago.

IT is up to the electorate to decide whether they want Iraq to dominate our lives for the next 10 years or whether we are finally going to get out of there. Only a very few candidates will get us out. They are, for the Republicans, Ron Paul, and for the Democrats Sen. Joe Biden, Rep. Kusinich, Gov. Richardson and possibly John Edwards. You can count on Hillary keeping troops there and Barack may also given his comments in the debate. None of the other candidates on the Republican side will end our presence in Iraq.

To forget about the importance of getting out of Iraq as a major issue in the primaries, is to do so at your own peril and that of your family and friends, because the future needs to be about change!

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq for November 2007

For the month of November there were 37 fatalities. In Nov. of 2006 we had 70 U.S. Fatalities in Iraq. This continues to be a major story and does show that the violence is down in Iraq, at least for Americans. It is a substantial reduction from the 70 last year.

For the months of November since this war started, these are the numbers of U.S. Fatalities in theater:

Nov. 2003 82
Nov. 2004 137 (This was the highest month of fatalities for the U.S. in the entire war)
Nov. 2005 84
Nov. 2006 70
Nov. 2007 37 By far this is an incredible reduction in U.S. fatalities compared to previous years.

There are many reasons for the reduction such as the surge working, Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr calling off his Army and asking them to stand down, and U.S. forces working with Sunni's to oust the bad guys of Al Qaeda, but it really doesn't matter. The numbers have been drastically lower these past 3 months compared to the past 5 years of this war.

What I don't understand is why the media isn't making more of these numbers. Look, I'm no fan of this war either, but when there is anything that is positive about this tragedy, it should be heavily reported. Me thinks that the media doesn't want to be responsible for tipping the Presidential election. But the facts are the facts and we must not be stuck in a mentality that is rigid or we are no better than those we claim are idealogues. Let's call it a victory and bring them home.

There are now 3,882 U.S. Fatalities, as of the reporting this morning. May they rest in peace and their families healed for their loss.

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq for October, 2007 are the lowest of the war!

For the month of October there were 39 fatalities. In October of 2006 we had 106 U.S. Fatalities in Iraq. This continues to be a major story and does show that the violence is down in Iraq, at least for Americans. It is a substantial reduction from the 106 last year and the lowest month of fatalities since March of 2006 when we had 31 and before that for March 2005 when we had 35.

For the months of October since this war started, these are the numbers of U.S. Fatalities in theater:

Oct. 2003 44
Oct. 2004 64
Oct. 2005 96
Oct. 2006 106
Oct. 2007 39

This is an extraordinary reduction and while they may be many reasons for the reduction such as the surge working, Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr calling off his Army and asking them to stand down, it really doesn't matter. The numbers are drastically lower than the past 5 years of this war.

What I don't understand is why the media isn't making more of these numbers. Look, I'm no fan of this war either, but when there is anything that is positive about this tragedy, it should be reported.

There are now 3,845 U.S. Fatalities, as of the reporting this morning. May they rest in peace and their families healed for their loss.

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks of October, 2007

For the 3 week in October there were 27 fatalities. The first 2 weeks there were 22, so that is an additional 5 for this past week. In October of 2006 we had 106 U.S. Fatalities in Iraq. This continues to be a major story and does show that the violence is down in Iraq. It is a substantial reduction from the 106 last year.

This is one of my most positive feelings about this terrible war. I pray that this continues going forward without consideration to the rhetoric on both sides of the Iraq war debate.

There are now 3,835 U.S. Fatalities, as of the reporting this evening.

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq for the first 2 weeks of October.

For the first week in October there were 8 fatalities. That's a monthly rate of 32. The total now for the first 2 weeks is 22. In October of 2006 we had 106 U.S. Fatalities in Iraq. While the rate has increased this past week, it is a substantial reduction from last year.

Many believe the reduction has a lot to do with the new MRAP vehicles that have been delivered to Iraq in August and September. There are over 800 new vehicles in the Iraq theater. Whatever the reason for the decline, it is good news for the families waiting for their sons and daughters, mothers and fathers, and sisters and brothers, to come home safely.

There are now 3,829 U.S. Fatalities.

U.S. Fatalities for September 2007

U.S. Fatalities for September 2007 totaled 63. For September of the previous 2 years there were the following recorded deaths:

Sept. 2006 72
Sept. 2005 49

Sixty three is less than last year and it appears that there has been a temporary effect from the surge. Let's hope that this can be sustained going forward in the coming months.

I pray for the families of those fallen soldiers.

UPDATE Oct. 2nd, 2007

The Fatalities for September are now 66, not 63. These may have come near the end of the day on the 30th and took time to report. That is possible. It is also possible they are not reporting until the time has passed to keep the numbers low. I think on this one, my first scenario is most likely. But if any more are added then I think we have something fishy as we have had in past months..

Yesterday mainstream media was out with the numbers and they were saying how low this month was, as it was the lowest month since July 2006. With the number now 66, it is now the lowest month since August 2006.

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks of September

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks in September totaled 55. The first week of September had 19, followed by 20 in the second week and now we add 16 to this 3rd week for a total of 55. This week had fewer deaths than the previous 2 weeks and while none are acceptable, I am pleased to report less deaths this 3rd week.

For September of the previous 2 years there were:

Sept. 2006 72
Sept. 2005 49


While this past week saw the Democrats lose (Sen. Jim Webb D-VA) in their attempts to require soldiers to be home during rotations as long as the time they serve in Iraq (15 months in Iraq and then 15 months home) and the Bill to end the war in Iraq with a date certain also failing this week as proposed by Senator Feingold (D), it looks like indeed these figures will be difficult to see every month over the next many years of this war.

Let's hope that we can get these numbers down further and eventually to zero. As long as we have soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, I am afraid that will be nearly impossible but nevertheless, a worthy goal. But for now I will count the blessings of the week, that fewer were killed.

U.S. Fatalities for the first 2 weeks of September

U.S. Fatalities for the first 2 weeks in September totaled 39. The first week of September had 19. We are at a rate at least equal to last year's data. We may surpass that number and unfortunately could reach as many as 80 this month. The trend is still in the wrong direction and must challenge the picture General Petraeus gave us this past week regarding Iraq.

Sept. 2006 72
Sept. 2005 49

In the photo above, there are actually about 130 graves marked in this Arlington National Cemetery photo. That's a lot of deaths. Compare that to the 3,781 deaths so far from this war and you get a small picture of the price we have paid as a country in Blood. Multiply that 3,781 deaths by at least 2 parents and a minimum of 20 extended family members and you are soon up to impacting directly 83,182 Americans affected. Add the casualties of over 27,000 which multiplied by 22 and that equals about 600,000 affected by this war directly. I could go on and on but you get the picture.

U.S. Fatalities for the first week in September

U.S. Fatalities for the first week in September totalled 19, an average of almost 3 per day.

All this while the following is about to happen:

Largest U.S. Embassy in the World to open in Iraq in September

Plans have been moving ahead for an Embassy in Iraq and that its total cost is expected to be $592 Million and occupy over 120 acres of prime land in Baghdad. It is to be the largest Embassy in the world. It should hold at least 1000 personnel according to reports and is scheduled to open in September. They claim this has been built with blast proof walls and it will be safe. This prediction is brought to you from the same people that expected this to be a cake walk and that the Iraqi's would welcome us with flowers.

My thoughts on this are this was another bizarre byproduct of this Administration. My suggestion is that both President Bush and Vice President Cheney should be the first residents of this Embassy and move their offices there, as soon as possible. I believe in accountability for this war and that there needs to be consequences for good and bad decisions. If this is a good idea, then those that think it is a good idea should be willing to be the first residents there. Besides, if the Iraqi's love us so much they should welcome the both of you with open arms. I'm sure they have that in mind if you choose to take up the offer, but the "arms" they will offer are of a different variety, I would suspect.

Update: U.S. Fatalities for August surprisingly jump!

I posted a few days ago under “US. Fatalities in Iraq for the month of August” that there were 81 deaths. The Bush Administration had hyped “the number was lower at 79 and lower than previous months” and that was the press on all major outlets including CNN. I look back today on September 5th at the actual numbers posted for August and surprisingly there are now 84 recorded deaths in Iraq of US. Forces, according to D.O.D and posted at i-Casualties.com.

What does this do to the news of a week ago.? It proves we were deceived for political reasons again by this Administration in their leadership over the military in what they want reported back to us. With 84 deaths of US soldiers in Iraq for August, they cannot claim that the numbers are going lower each month. This year, August, has surpassed July in deaths. In fact, it turns out that this August was just like any other August of the war, it surpassed the number of deaths in July as it has for the past 4 years. So everything you have heard has been used to manipulate the truth to support a position that is counter to what Americans want by an overwhelming number of us, 72% to be exact, from the last poll taken. We want the troops to be brought home and this President has no intention to do it and in fact is trying to manipulate facts on the ground so that both political parties must keep the war going on indefinitely. Shame on you, Mr. Bush. You are not my President, as you no longer deserve the respect to be called Mr. President, just George or hey you, will do.

I have updated my numbers and chart above to reflect the truth. 84 brave men and women died in Iraq in August. Bless and comfort their families in their grief. And I hope that George is tormented by the agony he has caused for so many families across America and in Iraq.

U.S. Fatalities for August. What's working in Iraq?!

This the last day remaining in August and the Administration pointing to the "facts" that the "surge" is working and citing the lower count in U.S. Fatalities as the evidence, I had to set the record straight. August's total U.S. Casualties is now 81, and last year the number was 65. These are real facts. What else has been distorted? They cite that this is the lowest month for U.S. Fatalities since the high back in May where 126 had died. This is nothing but spin. Yes, there were 126 deaths in Iraq in May, and we have come down steadily each month. That is fact. But let's look at the numbers for the same period for each year from May to August.

2004 May through August 242
2005 May through August 297
2006 May through August 244
2007 May through August 389

Is there any doubt now about how the data is being misused?!

Here's more real data. From the chart above you can see that for the same periods each year, that is from Sept. to Aug., which is a full year, this period of the war by far has been the most deadly. President Bush and his minions in the Administration are not only misleading the American public but also, more importantly, making a dishonest representation of the facts.

From Sept. 2003-Aug. 2004 693 U.S. fatalities
From Sept. 2004-Aug. 2005 902 U.S. fatalities
From Sept. 2005-Aug. 2006 759 U.S. fatalities
From Sept. 2006-Aug. 2007 1095 U.S. fatalities!

Bring the troops home before the list grows. Bring home the troops before this President starts another war, this time with Iran. If the troops aren't there they can't be used to launch another war of choice. If you are truly a patriot you will start speaking out more forcefully and more often. The Silent Majority has been too silent for too long!

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks of August

U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks in August now total 63 with the latest tragedy of a Helicopter crash in Iraq, resulting in 14 deaths.

It seems now certain that the August numbers will have more U.S. fatalities than last year, and possibly all 3 other years. Here's the data for all of August for the past 3 years:

Aug. 2006 65
Aug. 2005 85
Aug. 2004 66

This war of choice brought to you by its authors, President George Bush. and Vice President Cheney. Bring the troops home now!

U.S. Fatalities for the first 2 weeks of August

U.S. Fatalities for the first 2 weeks in August totaled 41. Previously reported was fact that he first week of August had 21. However, as I have always focused on U.S. Fatalities, one must not forget of the tremendous loss of life of Iraqis in the past few days, with over 500 killed as a result of several coordinated car bombs.

It seems most probable that this August numbers will have more U.S. fatalities than last year, and possibly all 3 other years but I pray not. Here's the data for all of August for the past 3 years:

Aug. 2006 65
Aug. 2005 85
Aug. 2004 66

U.S. Fatalities for the first week in August

There were 21 deaths in this first week in August.

In the first week of March we had 24 fatalities.
In the first week of April we had 28 fatalities.
In the first week of May we had 27 fatalities.
In the first week of June we had 28 fatalities.
In the first week of July we had 27 fatalities

While the numbers for August look encouraging as compared to the past 5 months, I have learned that one week of data can be deceiving in projecting the whole month. Here's the data for all of August for the past 3 years:

Aug. 2006 65
Aug. 2005 85
Aug. 2004 66

This happening while our Congress is on its vacation. Many, including myself, ridiculed the Iraqi Parliament for taking a vacation as they complained it was too hot to work during August. Well our own members of Congress can't use that excuse as they have air conditioning. So why aren't they working and trying to get the votes to end this war. When they go home to their districts, they will get an ear full if they dare show up in public. Oh, and they had the audacity to pass what President wanted regarding warrantless wiretapping. Shame shame shame on Congress, as Congress is a sham, sham sham!

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq: UPDATE

So why did I make such a fuss about the numbers in my previous posting for July U.S. Fatalities. I'll answer that question. Because the number that was first reported was 78 and not the 81 from the revised reporting, it allowed the Bush Administration to say that JULY was the lowest month of the war this year. You see, the previous "lowest" month this year was both February and March, BOTH WITH 81 reported deaths. By not reporting the 3 in July that were added on August 2nd for the July period, it gave the Adminstration propaganda to mislead both the Congress and the American people. But some of us are watching and reporting the truth for all to see the sham. Shame, shame on President Bush/Cheney and their team of "yes" men. Did you listen to the Larry King interview of Vice President Cheney? Can you believe he could lie like that so easily? I do. He has no honor, nor does President Bush. We need to pursue charges against them AFTER they leave office, if you believe the excuse Congress has cited, "there is no time now left to impeach them."

U.S. Casualties- Let's revisit the numbers and the manipulation

Well, i-Casialties.com reports tonight that there are 3 additional deaths being attributed to last month’s data. It seems to me that DOD is playing some propaganda moves on us. Remember on August 1st, all the numbers were in and it showed 78 deaths for U.S. Fatalities. Now rechecking the numbers, they have added 3 more today on August 2nd. The propaganda promoted in the media has been that there was the lowest number of U.S. Fatalities in July than any other month in 2007. This is both true AND misleading. When you compare this July with past July's you decide. Here's the data:

July 2007 81
July 2006 43
July 2005 54
July 2004 54

When comparing data it is of course important to compare the same month. Some months are hotter than others and when the temps rise to 125 degrees even the enemy finds it too hot to do much activity even though they are more accustomed to the heat than our troops are.

When comparing the same periods to previous years the data continues to show the truth. I report it here for those who may have missed it, as these are our brave young men and women giving their lives for a war of choice by this President Bush and Vice President Cheney, who have never served in battle and actually did what they could to avoid it. Here's the real data again:

Aug. 2006-Jul. 2007 1078
Aug. 2005-Jul. 2006 779
Aug. 2004-Jul. 2005 883
Aug. 2003-Jul. 2004 662

Facts don't lie but people do manage to shape the truth. Getting back to why there are three more deaths added in July. I think it has been deliberately done to make August numbers when reported by DOD seem less than last year. I wrote about this also several months ago as the same shenanigans occurred. If they can show truly one month less than the number of deaths last year I might actually believe things may be turning. But without that kind of data, we are being manipulated and if we believe their lies, we are as bad as they are for not being more informed. We'll here's their benchmark for August below:

August 2006 65
August 2005 85
August 2004 66

As far as I am concerned the number of U.S. Fatalities is NOT as reported as 2, but 5.

U.S. fatalities for July 2007

U.S. Fatalities for July totals 78. This compares to 43 for July in 2006. This is almost double that of last year. You are already hearing claims that things are getting better in Iraq from the "surge" strategy, and they are claiming this is coming from harsh critics of the war. Here's the data for July for the past 4 years:

July 2004 54
July 2005 54
July 2006 43
July 2007 78

The chart to the left shows the 4 year totals for the same period Aug-July of each year. Below is the actual data from the chart:

Aug 2003-Jul. 2004 662
Aug. 2004-Jul. 2005 883
Aug. 2005-Jul. 2006 779
Aug. 2006-Jul. 2007 1078


Let there be no doubt as to the trend in U.S Fatalities. Some things may be getting better in Iraq. But the question remains, for whom are things getting better? It certainly isn't for American soldiers and it isn't for most Iraqis. It is only good for those who make money by continuing the war.

As I said in June's posting on U.S. Fatalities, referring to Rep. King (R) from NY:

"when asked do you think (Rep. King) things will be better by September? Rep. King said, "By September we should 'START' to hear things are getting better in Iraq." This is a clue of the strategy that will be employed by the Administration and those sympathizers like Senator Joe Lieberman. The word "start" is the key word to focus on. This most assuredly will mean they will ask for more time, as the strategy is "beginning to work".

Well it is already happening as we enter into the month of August. Listen to the news and the propaganda. Remember, THERE IS NO MILITARY SOLUTION IN IRAQ! Today, Rep. John Murtha will attach a bill to the funding bill that asks that the troops be brought home starting in 60 days. Let's see who votes in the affirmative for that amendment. I'll be watching, will you?

Violence down in Iraq: No, really, says Ambassador Crocker!

I don't know how Ambassador Crocker, U.S. Envoy to Iraq, can claim that given that so far, this month, U.S. fatalities in Iraq total 66 compared to only 43 for the same month last year. But here, in part, is what was reported this morning by STEVEN R. HURST, Associated Press Writer:

BAGHDAD - Washington's top diplomat in Iraq said Thursday that increased U.S. troop strength had brought down violence, but it was impossible to rush political reconciliation or to predict when conditions would allow the United States to begin reducing its involvement.

With less than two months remaining before Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, were to report to Congress about progress in Iraq, the top envoy also told The Associated Press that political reconciliation was going to be "a long, hard pull."

"The surge (increase of 30,000 American troops) has done very well indeed in making a difference in security conditions. There's no question, in the Anbar (province) and Baghdad area. But it's not a light switch. You don't just flip something up and everyone is reconciled," Crocker said in an interview in his office in Saddam Hussein's Republican Palace.

Pressed repeatedly on when he thought U.S. troop levels could be reduced and other American involvement might be scaled back, Crocker said: "It's going to take longer than September."

The metric is wrong here. It's more of wishful thinking and propaganda from the Administration for the war. I think the Administration would be well served if they dealt more with where the public is on this topic. They have used up any credibility they had and so even if it were true, many, including myself, won't believe it. Facts don't lie. Check the numbers below for US Fatalities:

July 2006 43, July 2007 66 (so far!)

June 2006 61, June 2007 101

May 2006 69, May 2007 128

April 2006 76, April 2007 104

March 2006 31, March 2007 82

February 2006 55, February 2007 78

January 2006 62, January 2007 83

The "surge" started to be implemented in February and so the net affect is that more U.S. soldiers are dying every day than any way you measure it. If that is a reduction in violence Ambassador Crocker needs to go back to school and study up on basic math.