Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Market outlook: Down at the open but more favorable going forward.(UPDATE)

I said I would like to be wrong on my market call yesterday and I was. It seems the market embraced Geithner's toxic asset plan for the banks after all. And while this did break the downtrend line on the Dow and the market may go higher, there are enough skeptics out there saying the plan won't work because banks may not sell these toxic assets. So the market will be driven even more on news of what Bank CEO's are saying and going to do than anything else right now.

I was asked by a friend if I would buy into the Bank Index FAS after this market rise. The answer is yes as it has been beaten up quite a bit and with patience these should rise. However I would buy it on a market pullback, accumulating shares as it went down in price. For the buy and hold crowd, this has good potential over time of yielding good returns. However you might also want to pick a few banks individually as well and look as to whether they are paying any dividends which may sweeten the pot.

I am still holding the shares of TZA I purchased for $58.50 and did not sell them in the sharp pullback yesterday, as the ETF got crushed. But my salvation was that I still owned far more shares of TNA which surged up unprecedentedly yesterday to more than offset the losses from TZA. While there will be profit taking at the open watch the market continue to move up since we are headed to go over the 8,000 level on the Dow. Citigroup should help that rise as well. I still own the stock.

UPDATE: 4:30pm PST
I purchased the Direxion triple play on the Bank index, symbol FAS, today for $6.20/share average price. The market ended down 115 on the Dow but after yesterday's significant gain, many expected some profit taking. President Obama speaks tonight and we will see if any news materializes from his Press Conference.

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