Thursday, April 16, 2009

Market outlook: Have I changed my mind on market direction?

Yes, the market surprised me again today as it closed up over 8,100 to a close at 8,125. Did this change my view as to market direction next week? Nope! The reason I am not deterred from my view here is that Volume was down again from yesterday and it has been every day since Monday. A good rule of thumb is this, if the price is rising and the volume is dropping watch out, a big drop is close by.

Well tomorrow the Options Expire for April. Let's see how it ends but I have prepared myself for a selloff in the next week. Today I added to my shares of TZA at a price of $33.59, nearly at the low of the day. The Put to Call ratio closed at 0.76 and the VIX Index closed at 35.79. And today Gold dropped a lot to close down $16/ounce to $876. I said to watch Gold and it sure did drop but I see this too will rise next week but time will tell. Everyone has funded their Retirement accounts and I don't think they will commit to buying until the market pulls back substantially.

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