Market outlook for June 24th, 2009

This morning in pre-market Durable Goods Orders were reported to climb again 1.8% for May, as compared to a 1.8% gain in April. It is a very small positive sign, but the market is looking for any good news these days and a gain is better than a loss. The market may rise today but not a very strong rally in my view. The bigger news being awaited by the market is the announcement by the Fed after several days of meetings. Will Fed Chairman Bernanke say he still sees the worry of deflation or will they say they see and are concerned about inflation. In my view the Bulls and Bears will each have a strong case with whatever they say as a case can be made for being Bearish or Bullish. It doesn't really matter what they say. It is more important as to what the actual data says on the economy. So far, it's pretty bleak! If you are an American, Asian or European who is watching the data and see the Unemployment rate in the U.S. is at 9.4%, in California it's at 11.5% or in Spain it's 17%, you can say we are still in a bad recession. If you are one of those who are unemployed yourself, then you feel we are in a Depression!

But in pre-market the Futures are up and in Europe trading is up as well. Those views are by those who have money to invest and are obviously employed. They don't feel the pain of job loss! Only when the market goes down do most start to feel the pain of the reality of the economic conditions in their countries. Stay tuned!

Don't forget to vote in the Mini Poll on the right margin if you haven't voted this month. There is only 1 week left before I summarize June's data.