Market comments for Nov. 5th

The economic data released today was one of the best months we have seen in a long time. Yet, so far today, the market response has been muted with the Dow down a few points as well as the S&P and the Nasdaq. here's the highlights of the data.

The Unemployment rate for Oct. remained at 9.6%. Over 159,000 Private sector jobs were added in October. This makes 10 straight months of Private Sector job creation has occurred. That makes over 1.5 million jobs created so far in the past year.

Non Farm payrolls increased 151,000 jobs for October. Hourly Earnings increased 0.2%, while the Average workweek increased to 34.3 hours in October from 34.2 hours for Sept.

Pending Home Sales data will be released in 15 minutes and later this afternoon, Consumer Credit data will be released.

The Dow is down about 13 points right now as I publish this post.

Market comments for Aug. 10th (Update)

Economic data released this morning showed Q2 Productivity was the lowest since Q4 of 2008. It came in at -0.9%. Expectations were for +0.1%. Unit Labor Costs rose slightly +0.2%. Expectations were for them to rise 1.3%. Later this morning, data for Wholesale prices will be released. Expectations are Wholesale prices will be at 0.0% gain. I expect it to go negative, showing deflation but 0% is still amazing when you think about it.

Then the big item today is the FOMC will be releasing its rate decision and comments at 2:00pm EST or 11:00am PST., which is being anticipated with some anxiety. People want to know how the Fed will react to deflation and whether there will be more easing of Interest rates. Will the Printing Presses roar printing new money faster than it can be used. The worry had been Inflation but there appears that is not what the Fed is now concerned about. It's Deflation, just like in the 1930's.

Futures are down 105 points on the Dow.

UPDATE: 9:15AM PST

Above is the chart from Haver Analytics of Unit Labor Costs. Trend is pretty bad indeed. Looks like another piece of data showing deflationary times ahead to me

Summary of Projections versus actuals for economic data released this week

This is a summary of the economic data released this week along with what the expectations were for this data.


Monday, July 26th
10:00am EST. New Home Sales for June. Forecast is 295K and the prior month reading was 300K.
Actuals: 330K

Tuesday, July 27th
10:00am EST. Consumer Confidence for July. Forecast is 51.0 and the prior month was 52.9.
Actuals: 50.4

Wednesday, July 28th
8:30am EST. Durable Goods Orders for June. Forecast is +1.0% and the prior month was -0.6%
8:30am EST. Durable Goods orders ex Transportation. Forecast is +0.5% and prior month was +1.6%
2:00pm EST Fed's Beige Book.
Actuals: Durable Goods -1.0%
Actuals: Durable Goods ex Transports -0.6%

Thursday, July 29th
8:30am EST. Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast is for 450K and the prior week was 464K.
8:30am EST. Continuing Claims. Forecast is for 4.550 Million and prior week was 4.487 Million
2:00pm EST. Fed's Beige Book.
Actuals: Initial Claims 475K
Actuals: Continuing Claims 4.565 Million

Friday, July 30th
8:30am EST. GDP for Q2. Forecast is for 3.0% and Prior was 2.7%. Market is expecting 2.5%.
8:30am EST. Chain Deflator for Q2. Forecast is 0.7% and prior period was 1.1%
8:30am EST. Employment Cost Index for Q2. Forecast is 0.5% and prior period was 0.6%
9:45am EST. Chicago PMI for July. Forecast is for 58.5 and prior month was 59.1
9:55am EST. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment for July. Forecast is 67.5 and prior month was 66.5
Actuals: GDP 2.4%
Actuals: Chain Deflator 1.8%

The remaining data will be added as it becomes available today on Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence.

UPDATE:
Actuals: Chicago PMI 62.3
Actuals: Univ. of Michigan Sentiment 67.8

Market outlook for June 24th, 2009

This morning in pre-market Durable Goods Orders were reported to climb again 1.8% for May, as compared to a 1.8% gain in April. It is a very small positive sign, but the market is looking for any good news these days and a gain is better than a loss. The market may rise today but not a very strong rally in my view. The bigger news being awaited by the market is the announcement by the Fed after several days of meetings. Will Fed Chairman Bernanke say he still sees the worry of deflation or will they say they see and are concerned about inflation. In my view the Bulls and Bears will each have a strong case with whatever they say as a case can be made for being Bearish or Bullish. It doesn't really matter what they say. It is more important as to what the actual data says on the economy. So far, it's pretty bleak! If you are an American, Asian or European who is watching the data and see the Unemployment rate in the U.S. is at 9.4%, in California it's at 11.5% or in Spain it's 17%, you can say we are still in a bad recession. If you are one of those who are unemployed yourself, then you feel we are in a Depression!

But in pre-market the Futures are up and in Europe trading is up as well. Those views are by those who have money to invest and are obviously employed. They don't feel the pain of job loss! Only when the market goes down do most start to feel the pain of the reality of the economic conditions in their countries. Stay tuned!

Don't forget to vote in the Mini Poll on the right margin if you haven't voted this month. There is only 1 week left before I summarize June's data.