Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Mini Poll summary for the month of August: How long will the recession last?

Below is a summary of the Mini Poll data for August as compared to December, January, February, March, April, May,,June, July.

First the question.
How long do you believe this recession will last?

Data for December, then January, February, March, April, May, June, July and August:
Mid 2009 4%, 17%, 10%, 12%, 4%, 7%, 3%, 2%, - (Date passed)
End 2009 35%, 25%, 24%, 21%, 25%, 11%, 6%, 14%, 9%
Mid 2010 15%, 13%, 12%, 3%, 33%, 19%, 14%, 7%, 9%
End 2010 15%, 10%, 4%, 18%, 15%, 15%, 9%, 12%, 7%
Mid 2011 12%, 17%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 2%, 2%
End 2011 8%, 0%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 0%
Mid 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 3%, 2%, 7%, 0%, 0%, 0%
End 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 0%, 0%, 19%, 29%, 33%, 46%
Much Longer than the choices you have provided 0%, 0%, 10%, 12%, 0%, 11%, 14%, 12%, 11%
We are going to be in a Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%, 18%

If I summarize by Year:
2009 39%, 42%, 34%, 33%, 29%, 18%, 9%, 16%, 9%
2010 30%, 23%, 16%, 21%, 48%, 34%, 23%, 19%, 16%
2011 20%, 17%, 20%, 6%, 8%, 8%, 12%, 9%, 2%
2012 0%, 0%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 26%, 29%, 33%, 46%
Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%, 10%, 18%

Sample size for December was 26, for January 48 votes, for February 51 votes, for March 39 votes, for April 48 votes, for May 27 votes, June 35 votes, for July 42 votes and for August 57 votes.

Again, the major change seems to be the change in the year 2012. This validates the Consumer Confidence numbers as for June they dropped from 54.8 in May to a 49.3, then 46.6 in July and August's number while higher is still relatively too low for an economic recovery at 54.1. That's a 3 Month drop in Consumer Confidence at a time when Retailers are deciding what to order for Christmas from Manufacturers. It does not bode well for the holiday season this year for Retailers and the recovery.

As I said last month, as Unemployment increases so does despair! This Friday we get August Unemployment numbers and might get that 10% shock number as last month came in at 9.7%. Feel free to click on my comments button below this post and add some personal examples to what you see daily that has you thinking how the economy is doing. Thanks for voting.

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