Thursday, August 20, 2009

Jobless Claims unexpectedly rise this week

The headline says it all. Analysts were expecting jobless claims to shrink this week and it unexpectedly rose 15,000 more jobs lost, to 576,000 jobs for the week. Continuing Claims also went higher to a total of 6.24 Million people are out of work. I don't know why they expect less job losses as I expect more to come. Last night my wife and I went to the famous North Beach area of San Francisco to see a friend open her first art show. We ate in the neighborhood and walked around. For the first time in 25 years, we saw many For Lease signs on buildings and office space. We saw eviction notices posted on businesses by the Sheriff. We also went to my old neighborhood where I lived before I was married, Union Street, and saw a number of new For Lease signs on empty shops. So the notion of less job losses while enticing to believe to increase our confidence level, is misleading. Things are not getting better for many small businesses. Restaurants are holding on with limited cash.

A friend of mine told me her beau, a senior executive specializing in IT, was let go from a well known hospital in San Francisco. No one is apparently safe from layoffs, even some execs. Things are tight and my best guess is that my prediction of a major stock market pullback is on schedule for this Fall, peaking by October Options expiration, the third Friday of October.

Hope I'm wrong and the market may stay disconnected from the reality of the economy, as it is pumped up by government money given to banks and insurance companies. But this disconnect is more troubling than the actual economy, as all it does is increase skepticism by the public of our financial systems. It's called manipulation. The stock market is just like the Casinos, it's a rigged game in favor of the House.

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Anonymous Minneloushe said...

Charles, do you mean you expect the market to peak by the third Friday of October, or the pullback to peak by then ? I'll assume you mean the market will peak around that time, and falter thereafter.

Glad to see Bill Capp will be presenting to three useful conferences in September.

Meanwhile, I'm still getting killed on TZA. If I have to sell it at a loss, wouldn't it be nice to have a BCON profit to write it off against ?

And I so very much agree with you on the ignorant "Armeys" of the Night, to plagiarize both Matthew Arnold and Norman Mailer.

Warm regards... / jw

10:04 AM  
Blogger Charles Amico said...

I expect the market to drop significantly by then, JW. So we should start seeing the pullback in September and culminate at it's low in October by the 3rd week in October. Then I see the market rallying up and possibly a new Bull market to begin in the 1st qtr of 2010, if earnings and purchasing by Consumers was good for Christmas. Keeping my fingers crossed on this, if you know what I mean. Seems I have all my fingers crossed lately, including some for TZA. :)

12:02 PM  
Anonymous Minneloushe / Jerry said...

Thanks, Charles. Our daughter Hye-Young arrives home at JFK tonight from two months in Euroland, from Vienna to the Touraine, always with wonderful friends of ours. She did a marvelous job of it, too - Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Venice, Florence, Assisi, Paris, Dijon, Nice, Angers... all for less than $3500 including a much-too-expensive flight. But in a month, she's headed back to Paris to study for a year, and even though she'll be at a friend's place, the courses and food and utilities will cost her poor old dad ... about as much as his TZA is currently down... LOL. Glad I can laugh about it.

Warm regards from hotter'n heck Queens. /jw

3:38 PM  

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