Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Market outlook June 29th

Did you miss me? I took a few days respite from writing about the stock market. But here I am again. Consumer Confidence numbers just came out a few minutes ago and it wasn't good. The June Consumer Confidence came in at 52.9 versus a May reading of 62.7, which is a huge drop. Stock markets around the world are down this morning triggered by revisions downward in China of their economic data. The Dow has dropped below 10,000 and as low as 9,889. Currently it is sitting at 9,914. That's about a 200 point drop. The Nasdaq is down 66 points to 2154 and the S&P 500 dropped to 1048 down 26 points. All of these Indexes have dropped below their Intraday lowest Support levels.

It is still too early to tell from the chart above, whether the market will go lower or bounce up on technicals, but if I were a betting man, and I am, I would say we are going lower today and setting up a very bad Unemployment report due out Friday as we go into July.

You can't say that I haven't given plenty notice here that this was coming. And remember, this is just the beginning of a very painful decline. Cash will be King, so make sure you are raising Cash.

TZA Options are rising very nicely today as the stock also fairs well on this decline.

UPDATE: 7:55am PST

The Intraday chart has formed a very steep slanting downward "W" pattern. This suggests to me we have not hit the low of the day today. Keep checking back.

Update: 4:00pm PST

The markets closed earlier today and I was not surprised as we did go lower as I sated we would in my earlier comments above. As you can see in the full Intraday chart of the Dow, the low today was 9,811 but closed at 9,870. If you will notice the second red line I drew under the last "W" pattern near the close, it shows the "W" slanting down. I interpret this to mean we will most likely start down tomorrow and hit a lower low. We could test 9,800 tomorrow. We are at the low of June 8th again and most likely this level will not hold.

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