Friday, July 30, 2010

GDP disappoints for Q2 (UPDATE)

GDP came in at 2.4% for the second quarter. I expected this but experts had expected 3.0%. Dow Futures dropped about 80 points. GDP Deflator came in at up 1.8%. They revised Q1 to being up 3.7%. from the previous data of 2.7%. So we have gone from a 3.7% in Q1 to 2.4% in Q2. This proves GDP is going down and making the case for a double dip recession more certain. Finally we have some data which confirms the disconnect which has been going on lately that there is a disconnect between the stock market and the reality of the economy. Now comes the spin from the talking heads on CNBC or just changing the subject so we don't focus too long on the GDP disappointment. Remember our debt as a percentage of GDP is what determines whether we can borrow money or not. This hurts the case for cheaper borrowing to fund our debt.

In just a little while this morning, we will get the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence number, which should be like a hammer to this market. The number will come in much worse than originally expected. The market should not be up today as there is no positive way to look at this data. All the spin in the world can't put lipstick on this pig. The big question is how low the market will go today. It should be significant given the real data.

Come back later for the Updates on Consumer Confidence posted as part of this post. Look for the additional word UPDATE in the title.

Consumer Confidence for July came in at 67.8 versus expected number of 67.5.

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