Friday, August 06, 2010

Market comments for Aug. 6th

The unemployment numbers released this morning were very disappointing for anyone who cares about the economy and for the people who lost their jobs. Here's a rundown of the data. The most surprising data was Non-Farm Payrolls. The number expected was that they would be down originally about -87,000 and then they revised the expectation downward yet again to -100,000 but the number came in down even further at -131,000. Now that was bad enough, but they also revised last months from being down -125,000 to being down now -221,000, which is a more bleak picture than we had before the data. These are all hard working Americans who lost their jobs, who have families to care for. The Unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%, which didn't make sense as all expected it to go up to 9.6%, but it didn't so you wonder if there is any manipulation going on here.

The Unemployment report is the most important report in a Month and the accompanying Non-Farm Payroll report. The other indicator worth commenting on today is Consumer Credit. It is expected to be down -$5.0 Billion dollars, but the number doesn't come out until 3:00pm EST today.

The Dow Futures are down about -90 and Fair Value was in the positive, so expect the market to be down about -100 around the open this morning.

We have had a hammer pattern 2 days ago on the S&P 500 which said we were going to reverse direction and go down so today plays out that reversal. Also, if you go to the web site you will notice all major indicators are identified as Sell-If ratings based upon their Candlestick patterns. The sell decision is based at the open and if there is a gap from the close yesterday. Indeed all will have that today so the Sell decision is confirmed.

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