Market comments for Aug. 6th

The unemployment numbers released this morning were very disappointing for anyone who cares about the economy and for the people who lost their jobs. Here's a rundown of the data. The most surprising data was Non-Farm Payrolls. The number expected was that they would be down originally about -87,000 and then they revised the expectation downward yet again to -100,000 but the number came in down even further at -131,000. Now that was bad enough, but they also revised last months from being down -125,000 to being down now -221,000, which is a more bleak picture than we had before the data. These are all hard working Americans who lost their jobs, who have families to care for. The Unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%, which didn't make sense as all expected it to go up to 9.6%, but it didn't so you wonder if there is any manipulation going on here.

The Unemployment report is the most important report in a Month and the accompanying Non-Farm Payroll report. The other indicator worth commenting on today is Consumer Credit. It is expected to be down -$5.0 Billion dollars, but the number doesn't come out until 3:00pm EST today.

The Dow Futures are down about -90 and Fair Value was in the positive, so expect the market to be down about -100 around the open this morning.

We have had a hammer pattern 2 days ago on the S&P 500 which said we were going to reverse direction and go down so today plays out that reversal. Also, if you go to the AmericanBulls.com web site you will notice all major indicators are identified as Sell-If ratings based upon their Candlestick patterns. The sell decision is based at the open and if there is a gap from the close yesterday. Indeed all will have that today so the Sell decision is confirmed.

Nonfarm Payroll numbers put into perspective

From Chart of the Day today:

Chart of the Day
Today, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) increased by 290,000 in April -- the largest increase in four years. Today's chart puts the latest data into perspective by comparing job losses following the beginning of the current economic recession (solid red line) to that of the last recession (dashed gold line) and the average recession from 1950-1999 (dashed blue line). As today's chart illustrates, the current job market has suffered losses that are more than triple as much as what occurs at the lows of the average recession/job loss cycle. However, today's relatively positive jobs report provides an early indication that the current job market is moving into a phase of expansion.

Chart of the Day: Nonfarm payrolls Decade Gains (1940-2009)

This from Chart of the Day this morning. The chart shows clearly the impact of the Bush years of this last decade on Employment and job growth. Our people suffer today (17.5% are either underemployed or unemployed) because of the effects of the lack of job growth. This is an amazing statistic: This past decade is the first decade on record during which the number of jobs increased by less than 20%. To quote Chart of the Day site:

"Today, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) decreased by 85,000 in December while the data for November was revised upward and now shows a gain of 4,000 jobs. For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the percent increase in the number of jobs for every decade since the 1940s (the data goes back to 1939). As today's chart illustrates, the number of jobs at the end of a decade has been anywhere from 20% to 38% greater than 10 years prior. That 20% plus growth has been the case until the decade just passed during which the number of jobs basically ended the year where it began. This subpar job growth is particularly noteworthy due to the fact that the US population has increased by 10% in addition to a significant increase in global wealth during the same time frame."