Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Market comments for March 17th, St. Patricks Day! UPDATE

I am sorry to say but it appears tonight that the trading tomorrow will not result in a day in the Green, for St. Patrick's day. As it looks tonight, the Nikkei 225 has opened down about 350 points and our markets on Wednesday were accelerating down near the close. As the charts of the S&P 500 and the Dow show, the trend down is gaining speed and suggests more movement down before we get a bounce up.

It is clear to me that we have broken well below previous support levels and by extending previous lows you can see where the next level of support is and they are much lower. For the Dow, it means we most likely are going down to 11,400 and for the S&P 500 we most likely will go down and test the 1160 level. The Put to Call ratio at 7:00am PST this morning was at 1.99 but closed for the day at 1.17, which is still the lowest it has been in some time.

Today the Dow closed at 11,613 and the S&P 500 closed at 1256. When we go down to these levels many are going to wonder if we are on our way to test the 11,000 level on the Dow. The answer is yes, we are going below 11,000 and then we will test the 10,000 level, so be prepared for more losses if you haven't headed my warnings from previous posts. Notice that in the past 5-6 trading days we have wiped out 2 months of gains. That's how quick we can go down.

The data on Initial Jobless Claims will be out at 5:30am PST on March 17th as will Continuing Claims.

In the meantime, please send a contribution to the Red Cross effort to help Japan. It will make you feel good and you will be doing something really good for people who are suffering.

UPDATE: 5:55am PST

Dow Futures are now up 107 in pre-market so now it is anyone's guess where the market will close today. Maybe we will have a bounce up as the Bulls predict, but the data on Initial Jobless Claims came in at 385K, while expectations were for 380K. Surprisingly, the CPI for February came in at +0.5% and that is an annual inflation rate of 6%. That is not a good reading. That was before Oil rose significantly and suggests that March's CPI will be higher.

If we do get a bounce up today, plan it to be still a lower high than before. As I have repeatedly said, we will have lower highs and lower lows. Stay tuned! Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Labels: , , , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home

Technorati Profile