Thursday, May 19, 2011

Market comments for May 19th

Initial Jobless Claims were reported this morning and Futures rose on the news, signaling a good day in the stock market. Here's the news. You tell me if it is good news.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 409K, as reported this morning. That was down from last week's reported number of 434K. However last week's number was revised upward from 434K to 438K. Expectations (and hope) were for 400K or under because it was below 400K for a number of weeks.

So this was the good news on which the Futures rose this morning.

In other news this morning, the IMF chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, resigned his job to focus on the rape charges he is facing. President Obama will deliver a Middle East speech today dispelling any doubts that the U.S. supports the call for change.

I have added a chart of the Dow for the past year as it is instructive. Notice the Red uptrend line connecting all the low points. As long as the Dow stays above this line, the uptrend continues. You will also notice that there is a short Blue, which shows the most recent decline. Both this line and the Red line point to the axis at 12,450. This is the equilibrium point between the downward forces and upward forces. The upward forces have had and still have the upper hand until we break below the Red line. The longer Blue line connects all the tops of the move up this past year. You will also notice that since April, the Volume has picked up and this coincides with the recent decline phase we have been in.

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