Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Market comments for Sept. 20, 2011

Today I have a series of 3 charts to show you, but before I do a little explanation and commentary. Over the past several months now our US market has been in a relatively tight range of between 11,500 and 11,000. It has been a stated fact by many analysts that the US market is following the European markets due to the concern of a default of Greece. Even as recently as this past weekend, there was news that the governments bailing out Greece wanted to extract some guarantees that Greece was serious and they wanted to see Greece promise to layoff about 100,000 government workers. So that is the backdrop story.

I have put together a chart of Germany's DAX Index, France's CAC 40 Index and the Dow. All are 1 year in duration as of the close yesterday. First the charts and then the commentary.

As you can see from the charts above, Germany and France's Indexes are still apparently going lower and the Dow and other US Indexes seem to be not following the most recent trend as show by my red lines. To me I interpret this to mean that 2 scenarios are possible, First and to me the most likely scenario is that any more of a drop by these European markets may result in a sharper drop by the Dow. The other scenario is that we will disconnect from these European markets and stay within our tight range until our own economic results determine our separate direction. Much depends right now on the politics of the negotiations by Congress over the next few months and to whether the joint committee will be able to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases. However, be forewarned that Europe is really driving our markets and we could be setting up an alarming drop as many are not prepared for the market to go lower. I was at a party on Sunday afternoon where someone who was talking about the market stated that all indicators he has been watching have flashed a Bull market rally is about to begin. I told him I didn't know what he was watching but I think we are firmly in a Bear market and we are going much lower.

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