Is anything going to change after the election? Yes! Let me tell you.

So it is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats are going to lose the majority in the House of Representatives, but most likely will not lose the majority in the Senate. What does this mean to us and what effect that will have on legislation? I’ll tell you.

You see Republicans and Tea Party advocates believe they will reign in government spending and shrink the size of government, as a result of their victory, and that is what they are selling voters, as to why they should be elected. In fact, that will be far from the reality of what will happen after the election. Let me paint a real possibility of what is possible after this election.

First, there will be a lame duck Congress, as many Democrats will lose their seats, but, and this is the real interesting bit of news, they will feel they have one last chance to pass legislation before Republicans take control in January after they are sworn in. As of October 5th, here is a headline worth your attention: “Frustrated House still waiting for Senate action on 420 bills. Do you think that this fact is irrelevant because they lost the majority? Think again!

You see these bills are awaiting approval by the Senate, which still will be controlled by the Senate and that will still be controlled by the Democrats if projections hold for them holding on to the majority in the Senate.

Do you have any idea what those Bills contain? Let me give you a small sample:
- At the top of the list was the June 2009 cap-and-trade energy and climate bill, which passed the House by a slim margin but never made it to the Senate floor.
- Measures to audit the claims fund set up by BP after the Gulf oil spill and legislation to increase screening for diabetes.
- House leaders drew a line in the sand on holding a House vote on tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year, saying the Senate would have to act first. When the Senate decided to punt the issue until after the elections, the House followed suit, despite protests from liberal members who wanted to cast their vote to extend middle-class tax cuts before they left for the campaign trail.

- The ‘Paycheck Fairness Act’ (H.R. 12) that was one of the first pieces of legislation approved in the House when the new Congress convened in 2009. It won by a vote of 256 to 163. According to sponsor Rep. Rose DeLauro, D-Conn., it will help promote pay equity for women.
But with the post-election lame duck session packed with priorities, like debating the so-called Bush tax cuts, many of the bills passed in the House will simply disappear into the history books. They don’t carry over from one Congress to another and sponsors of these hundreds of measures must introduce them once again. So there will be a lot of pressure to get some of these passed in the Lame duck session between November and January.

If after the election, the Democrats in the Senate have the courage, and this would clearly take courage, they could change the “Filibuster” Senate rule to allow for 56, 55 or as low as 53 votes to move some legislation. The Republicans threatened to do this when they were in power, under the George W. Bush Administration and Senator Bill Frist was the majority leader in the Senate. Also, I believe I had heard that Reid has also considered this move.

So this will be an interesting 3 months ahead. I would expect some new tactics to be used in the Senate to overcome the gridlock. And don’t forget, if Harry Reid gets reelected he won’t be worrying much about what Republicans think, as this most likely will be his last Senate term as he would then be 77 years old when up for reelection. Interesting times indeed!

For McCain, has it been "Country First" or was it "CountryWide" First?

John McCain has been promoting his Presidential bid with the phrase "Country First!" The problem is he hasn't acted that way in his latest endeavor to rush back to Washington to get his Republicans in the House to vote for the Rescue plan. He said he was going to cancel his campaign until it passed. He didn't. They voted against the Rescue plan the first time and by McCain adding Presidential politics into the mix, the Senate added Pork to the $700 Billion package for such things as helping an Arrow manufacturer, helping import Rum from the Caribbean supplier and other pork projects to get Republican support. It worked. Another $100 Billion plus was added to the Bill, McCain voted for the additional Pork and then the House Republicans joined the Democrats and the Bill passed. That maneuver cost the taxpayers an additional $100 Billion from the original $700 Billion package to reach $800 Billion. So John McCain was hypocritical and more likely disingenuous.

He has supported deregulation across the board for the past 20 plus years he has been in the Senate. We all learned deregulation has caused the problem. So how can anyone argue McCain isn't 4 more years of the Bush presidency, as he has voted for Bush's policies 90% of the time. He has favored and pushed deregulation for the Banks causing the Sub Prime crisis as has his Economic Advisor former Senator Phil Gramm. You see it has never really been "Country First!" for McCain. It has been more like "CountryWide First!", the first financial institution to go belly up as the leaders in the Sub Prime lending fiasco.

Bailout: Wall Street or Main Street? Who to believe

The predicate for this $700 Billion dollar bailout plan is that it isn't to bail out Wall Street, it is needed to bailout the economy. Well let me point to previous calls by the President and Wall Street as to what determines the health of the economy. There are 2 things that determine the health of the economy. It is Corporate spending and Consumer spending. In fact, we have been told around Thanksgiving each year that it is the Consumer which determines nearly 67% of that equation and Corporate spending the other 33%. One could make a very good argument to give the $700 Billion to Consumers instead.

Yes, business needs to be able to borrow to get the goods and equipment necessary for their businesses to function. And our economic system is based upon consumption. However the Government doesn't tax consumption. Maybe it should and we need to reshape the tax code. As more and more of our population retires we won't have enough Income from the rest of the population to tax adequately to get the necessary funds to keep this ship afloat. Maybe indeed it is time to change the tax code to a Consumption Tax and away from an Income Tax. That way everyone pays including illegals and those who cheat on their taxes.

$700 Billion: What else could we do with it?

Have you asked yourself yet what could be done with $700 Billion dollars today besides this rescue plan that the Fed and the Treasury are asking from Congress? I'll tell you one thing, a sizable amount could have been used to make Social Security more solvent for one thing. We could have repaired many of the bridges and roads across this country. We could have used the money to solve Global Warming and reduced the Green House gases on the planet. We could have given every teacher in America a minimum salary of $100,000/year and still had $500 Billion left over to do some of the other things mentioned here.

But instead, we are going to pony up this incredibly large sum of money and are not going to observe anything for it. It will not be noticed, as life will go on as it did before the crisis except the unemployment rate will be going up, interest rates will be going up, stocks will be going down and many will fell tight when it comes to spending any of their money. We won't see anything that looks positive that we can point to that will be a measurable observable difference for the better. What there will be is the prevention of a total collapse of our system, THEY HOPE! You see there are no guarantees here. It is like going to Vegas and being able to play roulette and betting on red or black and hoping to win. But it is possible that the ball will settle on the zero (0) or double zero (00) number. That's where we are now. There is probably only a 2 in 37 chance that this $700 Billion investment will faIL, but there is still some chance. Southerners may be thinking of that old adage, "Save your Confederate money folks, the South shall rise again." The only problem is that this time we are all in the same barrel, whether we like it or not.

When this is over, I don't want to hear people say we can't afford Healthcare for everyone or that we can't accept Barack Obama's ideas to grow the economy with Green initiatives or that we can't bring home the troops to help save $12 Billion per month! If we can print money to pony up $700 Billion here, we can print some more and do the other things as well. Yes the wealthiest are going to have to pay more taxes. Get used to it as your life is better than the most of the country and we all must bear a more equal share of the burden.


This is what it must have felt like at the Fall of The Roman Empire.

Update on Financial crisis testimony by Treasury Secretary Paulson

As I listen to the testimony of Hank Paulson, Treasury Secretary for the Bush Administration, I am amazed that there is little definition as to the oversight structure that they want to put in place to monitor how the $700 Billion dollars requested from Congress. This money is to be used to deal with the financial crisis caused by the sub Prime Mortgage problems, Based upon everything I have heard so far, there is no real definition as to mechanisms, controls or oversight planned to monitor the distribution of funds. Paulson is basically saying "Trust me" and lawmakers are wary, as they should be.

We got into this mess because there was not oversight, regulations or transparency. I don't hear anything which outlines answers for those concerns. Is there another action which could be taken and what other actions have we considered? We won't know as they are scared that if they take too long, things could get worse very quickly.

One thing I would add is that I am so glad we have Hank Paulson as Treasury Secretary versus previous Treasury Secretary's in the Bush Administration. His experience at Goldman Sachs is invaluable in this crisis. He knows more than any Senator questioning him.

One thing I learned that was new was that the Credit Default Swap market now totals about $62 Trillion dollars. That size of investments in anything is scary indeed!