Durable Goods Orders for June 2011

Data released at 5:30am PST for Durable Goods Orders for June came in at -2.1% reading. This compares to a reading of +1.9% for May. See the chart below of Durable Goods Orders by Month going back to 2008 Monthly, from Financial Sense web site. The Monthly data on the chart is in grey bars on the chart and I have included today's reading with a red X. You will notice the yearly trend is going down, not up, as you would expect with an economy recovering from a recession.


UPDATE: 8:06am PST
Haver Analytics has posted a chart of Durable Goods orders which go back further in time, which I have posted below. Notice that we have only gone below the zero point one other time since the 2008-2009 recession.

Market comments for July 6th

Data released this morning on the ISM Services sector came in at 53.3 for June versus a reading of 54.6 in May. This one is going in the wrong direction for a recovery. In addition to these numbers ISM Non- Manufacturing Index numbers came in at 60.9 for June vs 69.6 for May. This number also is in the wrong direction for a recovery.

The big number for the week will be Friday's Unemployment data for June. Last month the number rose to 9.1% for May and many expect it to rise to 9.2% for June. The Challenger Job cuts data also announced today didn't give many hope for a better number. The Challenger Job Cuts number was at +5.2% for June compared to it dropping in May to -4.3%.

Mini Poll summary for June: How long will the recessionl last?

From the chart above it is clear that people do not see the recession ending soon.

Below is a summary of the Mini Poll data for June as compared to December, January, February, March, April, May and June.

First the question.
How long do you believe this recession will last?

Data for December, then January, February, March, April, May and June:
Mid 2009 4%, 17%, 10%, 12%, 4%, 7%, 3%
End 2009 35%, 25%, 24%, 21%, 25%, 11%, 6%
Mid 2010 15%, 13%, 12%, 3%, 33%, 19%, 14%
End 2010 15%, 10%, 4%, 18%, 15%, 15%, 9%
Mid 2011 12%, 17%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%
End 2011 8%, 0%, 10%, 3%, 4%, 4%, 6%
Mid 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 3%, 2%, 7%, 0%
End 2012 0%, 0%, 2%, 0%, 0%, 19%, 29%
Much Longer than the choices you have provided 0%, 0%, 10%, 12%, 0%, 11%, 14%
We are going to be in a Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%

If I summarize by Year:
2009 39%, 42%, 34%, 33%, 29%, 18%, 9%
2010 30%, 23%, 16%, 21%, 48%, 34%, 23%
2011 20%, 17%, 20%, 6%, 8%, 8%, 12%
2012 0%, 0%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 26%, 29%
Depression 12%, 19%, 18%, 24%, 13%, 4%, 14%

Sample size for December was 26, for January 48 votes, for February 51 votes, for March 39 votes, for April 48 votes, for May 27 votes and June 35 votes.

Again, from the chart below, the major change seems to be the change in the year 2012 but it moved out to the end of 2012 according to the first set of data above. This validates the Consumer Confidence numbers for June, as they dropped from 54.8 in May to a 49.3 in June, as reported yesterday. The last 2 Months of my surveys show a shift in peoples feelings about the length of the recession to a much longer time, than my earlier survey results have indicated.



As Unemployment increases so does despair! Feel free to click on my comments button below this post and add some personal examples to what you see daily that has you thinking this way.

U.S. Fatalities in Iraq for the first 3 weeks of June

UPDATE Saturday June 23, 2007 To the story below.

What a sad day today is. There were more GI's killed in a roadside bombing in Iraq, bringing the total U.S. fatalities for June to 79. I just can't comprehend the sacrifice these families are making. A sad day indeed.

June 22, 2007
U.S. Fatalities for the first 3 weeks in June totals 70. This compares to 61 for the entire month of June in 2006. You will see claims that things are getting better in Iraq from the "surge" strategy. You will hear them using this month’s figures as significantly lower than last month and they hope the trend is turning down in fatalities. While that fact is true, because of the heat in Iraq this time of year, the only true comparisons should be year to year for the same month. Using this basis here's the data for June for the past 4 years:

June 2003 30
June 2004 42
June 2005 78
June 2006 61
June 2007 70 (with still 9 days remaining in this month, unfortunately, I expect the number to be greater than the 78 in 2005)

The chart above shows the 4 year totals for the same period July-June of each year. Below is the actual data from the chart:

Jul 2003-Jun. 2004 656
Jul. 2004-Jun. 2005 883
Jul. 2005-Jun. 2006 790
Jul. 2006-Jun. 2007 1013


Let there be no doubt as to the trend up in U.S Fatalities. If we continue using the current ineffective, fatal, strategy, the numbers will escalate as they did in Vietnam. Don't believe things are getting better in Iraq. It's about the Oil there!

June's 2 week total of Fatalities in Iraq

U.S. Military fatalities for the Iraq war in the first 2 weeks of June totaled 42. For the entire month of June 2006 there was a total of 61 fatalities.

U.S. Military fatalities for the Iraq war in the first 2 weeks of May totaled 50. For the entire month of May 2006 there was a total of 69 fatalities. For the first 2 weeks of April, 2007 there were 51 fatalities so we are on our way for another record month for fatalities.

The hot summer months of June, July and August in Iraq hopefully will keep the death rate down as it did last year. U.S. Fatalities in July of 2006 were 43 and in August of 2006 were 65, for comparison. This comes of a record May 2007 where we lost 127 compared to 69 in May of 2006.

Things can't get better without a diplomatic solution and our President and his Secretary of State seem to have gone AWOL in that area. This while the Palestinian territory is in flames. It is only a matter of time before the terrible suicide bombings begin again to inflict terror on the innocent in Israel. Madness is everywhere now in the Middle East being unleashed by a war of choice in Iraq. September will not bring those in charge to change direction as their “surge” has increased the violence to a point where both the President and his supporters of the war like McCain and Giuliani will see a “worse catastrophe ensuing” should we leave. Our continued presence there has created a “worse catastrophe ensuing”, so stop making this a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bring the troops home.

U.S. Fatalities for first week in June

As I mentioned before, I believe the numbers for May were increased after May was over to try to make this month show a more positive trend. Having said that, June's numbers are bad enough, as reported. There were 28 deaths in the first week in June (which does not include the 5 additional deaths that were added to May's figures between June 1-3rd.)

In the first week of March we had 24 fatalities.
In the first week of April we had 28 fatalities.
In the first week of May we had 27 fatalities.
In the first week of June we had 28 fatalities.

Reporting of U.S. Fatalities for May keeps rising even though it's June! What's up?

Are games being played reporting of U.S. Fatalities in Iraq by DOD? I seriously think something is amiss here. Back on Friday, June 1st, it was reported that there were 122 Fatalities. The next day, it crept up and then on Sunday it crept up again. Today the numbers for May have been revised again and we are now looking at 127 U.S. Fatalities for the Month of May.

I think this reporting is suspicious in light of the fact that the news was already bleak looking at May's numbers. But here we are 4 days into June and the official numbers for June are off the chart at 17 U.S Fatalities and a week hasn't even lapsed. If you add in the numbers added from last month we should be at 21 minimum for this month, another month of a record pace.

In the first week of March we had 24 fatalities
In the first week of April we had 28 fatalities
In the first week of May w had 27 fatalities
In the first week of June so far we have 22 fatalities with 3 plus days remaining in the week.