Market comments for Nov. 1st

Data released this morning on economic indicators were as follows. Personal Income came in at -0.1%, while Personal Spending came in at +0.2%. The ISM Index for october came in at 56.9, which is up from September's reading of 54.4 and Construction Spending surprisingly came in at +0.5% from an August revised reading of -0.2%. The ISM Index measures Manufacturing activity.

So overall these numbers were mixed. The most negative ones were the Personal Spending numbers, as expectations were for a reading of +0.4%. The most positive was the Construction Spending data as they had expected a negative -0.7% and instead the number came in at +0.5%.

The question, as always, is whether we can really believe these numbers. I will leave that up to you.

I thought I might also summarize my Mini Poll survey to date. Here are the results to date:

- I'm Optimistic and think things will get better. 18%
- I'm Pessimistic and think things will get worse. 61%
- I'm neutral and think things will stay about the same. 21%

I will set the results back to zero and see how it changes going forward so please vote again next visit.

In the mean time, the Dow rose this morning to close to its 52 week high. The 52 week high is 11,258 and today so far we hit 11,244. The S&P 500 came very close to 1200 and hit a high of 1195. Tomorrow will be a more neutral day, as we will not know the election results until Wednesday. There is no economic data being released tomorrow because it is election day.

Remember to Vote! Otherwise, don't complain about the country. This is your chance to register your objection or your support.

Market comments for Oct. 1st (UPDATE)

Personal Income data and Personal Spending data have been released this morning. For Personal Income the data came in at +0.5% while expectations were for +0.3%. For Personal Spending, the data came in at +0.4%, while expectations were for +0.3%. Both of these data are backwards looking as they are for August, not September.

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September comes out after the market is open at 6:55am PST. Also at that time to be released is Construction Spending, ISM Index. Auto Sales and Truck Sales data will be released at 11:00am PST. All this data will be updated later today as they become available.

So far that's a nice jump in Personal Income and Spending. Futures are pointed up with the Dow up 55 points and the S&P up 6 points.

UPDATE: 7:05am PST

The ISM index came in at 54.4, which was lower than the expected 55.0 number. This is a September number. Construction Spending was up +0.4%, which is much more than the -0.7% expected number. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final number for Sept. came in better than expected at 68.2 vs. an expected 67.0 reading. The ISM index is more optimistic than what people are feeling. The growth is not showing real growth enough to have a recovery but may not be as bad to cause a double dip.

Market comments for Sept. 27th and the week

I had been away this weekend, hence the lack of any updates. But here in the table below are the expected Economic indicators to be released this week. As usual, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday is very important. Expectations are for 450K Initial Claims for the week. Last week the data surprised all by coming in at 465K. If this week rises at or above 465K, we could see a sell-off.

Also important this week will be the Consumer Confidence number and the 3rd estimate of Q2 GDP. Personal Income and Personal Spending is also important. However, having said that, the markets appear not to be data driven but investor psychology driven. Notice I did not say Consumer Confidence or Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Index. The Bulls want to drive this market up because they see no problem out there that the Fed can't handle (substitute the word "handle" with the word "manipulate".

Market comments for Aug. 3rd

Even with yesterday's high on the Dow and S&P 500, we didn't break above the top resistance lines I drew on my previous post on the Dow and S&P 5 year charts on Saturday. Today's data is sobering yesterday's drunken surge in the market. Personal Income came in flat at 0% gain. Personal Spending had no change as well. Factory Orders were down -1.2%, more than consensus estimates of -1.0%. Pending Home Sales were also down -2.6% and -18.6% below June 2009 levels. Expectations were that the number was coming in at -5% for June, so that number was better than expected.

The markets are down about 0.5% after 1 hour of trading now. The big number for the week will be the Unemployment rate for July. Expectations are that Unemployment will rise to 9.6% from 9.5%. Initial Claims also come out on Thursday and expectations are for that number to come in at 460K Claims.