The war between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis is being played out in the stock market. What is it telling us now?

I have been thinking about this post for a while. It was triggered by friends who see the stock market in diametrically opposed positions. It appears to look like a Bull versus Bear argument but it's really not. It is the difference between those who use Fundamental Analysis and those who use Technical analysis to make decisions about market direction and trading decisions and whether to Buy, Hold or Sell. In order to get at this problem, I must first explain the difference between both analysis techniques. For that I will use the 4th Edition book by Martin Pring titled, Technical Analysis Explained. It is considered the bible for those interested in Technical Analysis. I will not make this too lengthly, but it is important to lay this foundation before I get into where the market is going to go and why the opposing positions have the positions they do. I will conclude with a number of charts and some support for the idea that while the disparity will continue between these two positions, one position is going to lead the way into the future as it is doing right now behind the scenes.

Ok, here we go. "Technical Analysis in nothing more than a tool", says Martin Pring. But a very good tool I might add. "Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that people will continue to make the same mistakes they have made in the past." According to Investopedia.com, "At the most basic level, a technical analyst approaches a security from the charts, while a fundamental analyst starts with the financial statements. By looking at the balance sheet, cash flow statement and income statement, a fundamental analyst tries to determine a company's value. In financial terms, an analyst attempts to measure a company's intrinsic value. If the price of a stock trades below its intrinsic value, it's a good investment.

Technical traders, on the other hand, believe there is no reason to analyze a company's fundamentals because these are all accounted for in the stock's price. Technicians believe that all the information they need about a stock can be found in its charts.

So currently the argument, for those using Fundamental Analysis, goes something like this. The S&P 500, based on historic terms is trading at about 21 times trailing price-earnings ratio and therefore is cheap as an investment today. That compares to the historical average of 16.4 since 1881 and is at the top end of the range pre-2000. The S&P 500 is expensive on a long-term basis, but and this is the big but, inexpensive compared to the past ten years. (Source: Prieur du Plessis)

Technical Analysts say, "Look at the charts! We are ready to drop significantly!" What do they base that argument on? A Head and Shoulder chart pattern. Let's take a look at several charts and explanations of the Head and Should pattern from several sources. The first chart shows a Head and Shoulder pattern looking at Oil prices back in time with an explanation on how to read the chart information.

This second chart shows a classic head and Shoulder pattern on a usual uptrend similar to the latest market movement this past few years.

This 3rd chart depicts more closely, the current market trend of the past 20 or so years and how to determine how far it should drop, and shows the neckline to measure the amount of the expected drop.

And the last 2 charts show the Dow and S&P 500 for the past 30 years and the big Head and Shoulder pattern we are starring at as Technical Analysts. It explains why many from this camp are very worried about the future.


One other very important relevant piece of information, High Frequency Trading now controls about 70% of the market volume traded in a single day (Source, 60 Minutes broadcast of Oct. 10th). It has also been determined by the SEC, that the single one day crash on May 6th where the market dropped over 600 points in 15 minutes was caused by the High Frequency trades made. It was caused by an algorithm (a set of rules to be followed in calculations and problem solving by a computer). Since May 6th, the SEC has instituted trading curbs, which stop the trading in any security which drops 10% in a short amount of time. Since the trading curbs have been in place a number of times the market has had to be stopped because of similar algorithms by other firms had glitches. The market is not being run by the individual investor, it is being run right now by computers, which were set up by humans, who tend to repeat the same mistakes, as I stated in the beginning of this piece. This is why I like Technical Analysis. You know we humans are going to panic at some point in the very near future. What will be the trigger is anyone's guess. But I think any rational person would agree we are going to panic and we are all just waiting like deer frozen in the headlights.

It has been painful staying on the short side of this market recently, but it will pass. I wish it weren't so, but I am worried many are going to feel some really bad pain and they are going to say it was unforeseen. The Fed will be the first to use that excuse when it happens. Just watch!

SEC wasn't quite sleeping under Christopher Cox's leadership. They were watching porn!

I had written here that Christopher Cox, former head of the SEC under the Bush Administration, should have been brought up on charges of incompetence and criminal behavior for all the problems related to the SEC during the years 2007 and 2008. The headlines today reveal just how bad things were under Cox's leadership. Here's the headline: "GOP ramps up attacks on SEC over porn surfing."

and now a few excerpts:

"WASHINGTON – Republicans are stepping up their criticism of the Securities and Exchange Commission following reports that senior agency staffers spent hours surfing pornographic websites on government-issued computers while they were supposed to be policing the nation's financial system."

" it was "disturbing that high-ranking officials within the SEC were spending more time looking at porn than taking action to help stave off the events that put our nation's economy on the brink of collapse.

In addition here's some other juicy tidbits:

• A senior attorney at the SEC's Washington headquarters spent up to eight hours a day looking at and downloading pornography. When he ran out of hard drive space, he burned the files to CDs or DVDs, which he kept in boxes around his office. He agreed to resign, an earlier watchdog report said.
• An accountant was blocked more than 16,000 times in a month from visiting websites classified as "Sex" or "Pornography." Yet he still managed to amass a collection of "very graphic" material on his hard drive by using Google images to bypass the SEC's internal filter, according to an earlier report from the inspector general. The accountant refused to testify in his defense, and received a 14-day suspension.
• Seventeen of the employees were "at a senior level," earning salaries of up to $222,418.

A Congressman from California said he expects the head of the SEC, Mary Schapiro and her team, are "very focused on" the issue. Schapiro has been parrying GOP complaints about the Goldman Sachs lawsuit, which agency officials hoped would mark a new era of tougher oversight of Wall Street. They followed high-profile embarrassments including the failure to catch Ponzi kings Bernard Madoff and R. Allen Stanford.

Republican lawmakers also accused the SEC of being influenced by politics. The SEC's commissioners approved the Goldman charges on a rare 3-2 vote. The two who objected were Republicans. Schapiro is a registered independent who has been appointed by presidents of both parties.

So you see, there is much to charge Christopher Cox with given this probe. He surely deserves it and I am pressing Congress to hold hearings and subpoena Mr. Cox to testify. And boy do I hope they file charges of some kind so he has to spend some jail time!

If you are interested in reading my earlier Blogs on Christopher Cox, click here and here, or here and if you are interested in reading the entire news story above from Yahoo, click here.

THe financial crisis slowly plods along. We're lucky it is giving experts time to think about solutions!

Main Street media is reporting that the government is considering a bailout of Citigroup. Citigroup also has already received a $25 Billion package from the TARP funds, so many wonder what Treasury is now considering as its options. Citi lost its bid for Wachovia to Wells Fargo. While at the same time the Administration and those of the Obama Administration are trying to calm and stabilize markets here and abroad. All this while many are ambivalent about a bailout of the Auto Industry and specifically GM. This is leading to our friends abroad in Europe and Asia wondering whether the U.S. is going to have an unfair advantage over rivals, many of which are made in those regions.

They will not let Citigroup fail. So right now it's all about speculation. One of the reasons Citi finds itself in this situation is the loss in their stock value at $3.94. One thing which would help is if the SEC re-instituted its Uptick rule to prevent continued shorting of the stock by speculators. It was the worst decision in SEC recent history to abandon the rule. Many have called for the head of Christopher Cox, head of the SEC and a Bush appointment. It seems too late for that but Cox could reinstitute the Uptick rule and help minimize a further slide in the share price. I just don't have any confidence in him doing that. It would be admitting he made a mistake and that is something the Bush Administration will not consider.

But in spite of it all, I believe this week ahead will be good for the markets. I'll state why tomorrow. Come back then.