Today is a Bear Market Rally. Sell into strength to preserve cash

That's correct, this is a relief rally because of the coordinated moves in the EU. If your stocks have scratched back a sizable gain, you should consider selling some of the stock today as the rally continues and more tomorrow if the market continues its rise. Because, the markets will drop back to the recent lows in days to come and will set new lows. It has happened many times in the past and if you observe how the Nasdaq dropped from the Dot.Com bust in 2000 to 2001, there were many times where everyone thought the bottom was in only to see the markets drop again to new lows. Let history be your guide.

Check back as I will continue to write about markets here. When we are at the bottom I will declare it. For now I am trying to help you save your funds and preserve capital until things stabilize. We are not stable yet and have quite a long way to go.

Are we at the bottom in the stock market?

According to my analysis, no, but we are close. Where is the bottom? After doing my own analysis it appears to me that the bottom is between 7200 and 7400 on the Dow. As of this writing, the Dow is at 8011 or down over 565 points as I type this. Looking at the chart below we have tested the 7200 level a number of years ago in 1999, 2002 and 2003. In the attached chart you can see from the lines I have drawn that I believe that will hold as well. So there is still some pain left. That is an 115 drop from here. To recover back up to 8100 the Dow would then have to gain 900 points or 900/7200 or 12.5%. That won't be difficult to do. So it seems the best strategy now, if you haven't sold already, is to hold on and let this play out. It's too late to sell, unless you don't have any cash at all.

We need to once again believe that as Americans we can and will pull together. However this time it will take a new President, as we have lost all faith in President Bush. But I do have one question to the Bush Administration. Where's Vice President Dick Cheney through all of this financial turmoil? Is he in the underground bunker working at contingency plans to institute Marshall Law? He doesn't even feel a need to support Bush by being at least next to him during these addresses to the public as he tries to calm fears. Shame on you Mr. Vice President.