Tuesday, November 14, 2006

The Baker Commission and wishful thinking

In a previous post I commented on what a mess there is in Iraq. It's worse than the Wild West was in our country, It's worse than the environment at the beginning of our Civil war. Between the new Iraq government and our own ineptness in managing the post war security, we have created the conditions on the ground that yields only a few possibilities.

The conditions are ripe for the emergence of a strong individual to lead Iraq. The person would have to be ruthless, unequivocal in his decision-making and he would need to strike fear in those around him. He would need to have some support from those willing to die for the cause and daring to do the dirty work of "unification". Those that have hypothesized a solution to this problem by getting regional interested parties to come together and work out a decentralized central government fail to see the 800 lb. Gorilla in the room. That fact being that there are no real Iraqi leaders, which mean no agreements, can be made. Until that basic problem is solved there can be no "solution" to the problem centralized government or decentralized government. It doesn't make any difference.

Cleric Sistani was involved in post war discussions in trying to make a government work. He had supported our attempts to stand a duly elected government. Concessions were made by Sistani with the hope of a united Iraq. Because we failed to deliver on many promises this Administration and our Generals made to secure the country, he has pulled back his support. We push the Iraq's to heal the militias. The only semblance of leadership in the Shiite region is Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr. There is no comparable cleric in the Sunni areas as there needs to be if there can be a settlement.

The Baker commisssion will fail if they don't provide for a plan to get real Iraqi leaders at the table and that they take a stand for Iraq. Hey, maybe they should offer Saddam the job as a way for a greater punishment than death.


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