Friday, January 16, 2009

Setting the record straight on my recent stock market predictions

So here I am looking back at my recommendations going back to December. I wrote the following post on Jan. 5th as I was looking at my ETF Ultra Short Fund recommendation of SDS and TZA. Here is what I said:

"So I am taking the heat over my recommendation to buy the ETF Ultra Short SDS. Since I recommended the purchase the ETF around Dec. 6th the price was $70.50 (adjusted for the $11.50/share payout). Today the ETF closed at $65.70. Yes, it is down about 7%. But we are near the top of the range of the highs of the market in the Dow and SP500 as well as the Nasdaq and there has not been a clear breakout on strong volume. So I am still holding those shares. I have added to them several times since the beginning of December. The same is true for TZA, except it has lost more, because of its tripling effect. I had bought my shares at $53.50 and it closed today at $42.86. That's a paper loss of 20%. But I am willing to hold both of these 2 ETF's which Short the market because I fundamentally do not believe we are over the worst. There has not been a believable breakout, as I review the charts, and it is more like a creep up than a step up. You need to do what's right for you. I am doing what I believe will still be a profitable trade. Time will tell."

Well, I was looking at the current price of SDS and TZA and here's where they are now to close the loop on this recommendation. SDS is currently at $80/share and TZA hovering around $60. If you sold SDS now you would still have made over a 10% gain and same with TZA. I am choosing to continue to hold my shares because I think I can do better, but my commitment to try to get you at least 10% profit has been fulfilled today if you sold or are selling.

On Jan/ 7th I wrote:
We closed yesterday at 9015 on the Dow, 934.70 on the S&P500 and 1652 on the Nasdaq Composite. I expect us to go lower over the coming days. Expect the Dow to go down at least another 500 points this week, from where we are now (8777). I expect the S&P500 to go down below 880. The Dow has gone down to 8200 and the S&P has gone down to 840 currently.

I had said I thought MGM was overbought at $14/share recently and said it would go back down to $9.95/share and guess what? It has hit $9.95/share today.

So stick with me and bring your friends here. You can check out my predictions very easily, as I post often and my predictions and recommendations are Public record now. My style is different, but I share one thing in common with Jim Cramer of CNBC, I desire to help you preserve capital and grow back your nest egg. I get nothing out of this but the sheer pleasure of helping others. All the best!

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