Thursday, April 23, 2009

Markets are sending a clear message. Can you read it correctly?

That's correct, the markets are sending a clear message to us all if you are looking for the message. Today Gold went above $900/ounce to $907/ounce. Remember what I said about Gold leading the way. I said if Gold goes up the market will come down. That is happening. In addition the Put to Call ratio had dropped to 0.76 yesterday. And add to that Existing Home Sales for March were down lower than February, which actually were up for that month. And lastly, the earnings news has not been that bad and yet this market has not gone up. Did you ask yourself why? It would not make sense given all the bad news we have had before this on unemployment, Durable goods orders and other pieces of data. The reason all this makes sense to me is that the people who move the markets, Institutional Investors, see more systemic risk in the system than most everyone else is seeing right now that they are not yet willing to commit Capital to the market. A reality check on that viewpoint would be to look at the Volume. For a second week in a row, the Volume is declining each day with Monday having the larger Volume and then Tuesday is less than Monday's Volume and Wednesday is less than Tuesday's Volume. You have the picture. So this market will drift lower and lower, as this pattern continues.

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