Are we bottoming in job losses?

Are we bottoming in the Unemployment rate at about 10% or are we headed for another round of significant layoffs? This is an important question as much of the recovery in the stock market is based on the former rather than the latter viewpoint. Many who argue, that we are at bottom of this recession and should be turning around, use as one of their arguments, that employers may have over shot in layoffs and will soon be forced to do some hiring. I do not see this as true in one key industry, technology. And over the past 3-5 months, it has been the Tech sector which has led some of the recovery. But Tech jobs have not been cut too much and many could argue that they are still over-employed as a sector.

Many Techies though who are unemployed have been looking at going into other sectors like healthcare and Green technology. Still, as long as the Tech sector looks like it may recover from the recession, there probably is a lot of extra labor employed and not yet trimmed in these companies. It is reports like this which fuel keeping extra workers. If things ever do slack up on the demand side of the equation, many see a much higher percent Unemployment picture. However, according to a KPMG survey that seems unlikely unless new data emerges. Here's the August 21st full story.

"The survey found eight out of 10 executives expect business conditions in the technology sector to improve in 2010, with 78 percent expecting stronger revenue and 72 percent expecting improved profitability.

A survey of 130 CEO and other C-level hardware and software company executives conducted by audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG found the respondents believe that the technology sector will recover from the current economic crisis substantially more quickly than the U.S. economy, with senior business leaders expecting improved revenue and profitability in 2010 and about half seeing an improved job picture.

In the KPMG survey, two-thirds of these senior technology executives said they thought their industry would fully recover from the current economic crisis ahead of the overall U.S. economy. Silicon Valley-based executives were even more bullish  77 percent expect the technology sector's recovery to outpace the U.S. recovery. About 43 percent of the technology leaders surveyed expect the U.S. economy to recover after 2010 while 39 percent predict the economy will recover by next year. The survey found eight out of 10 executives expect business conditions in the technology sector to improve in 2010, with 78 percent expecting stronger revenue and 72 percent expecting improved profitability.

'The results are in line with recent earnings reports in the technology sector which suggest business conditions are starting to improve,' said KPMG partner, global chair and U.S. leader for the organization's information, communications and entertainment practice, Gary Matuszak. 'There are also reports of software industry sales expanding five to ten percent annually after the recession, so while it's far from blue skies in the industry, the worst seems to be behind us.'"

I'll let you decide what you believe will happen. But remember, the Consumer is the key to a recovery and I don't plan on buying any big ticket items for a long time. I may not even buy smaller ticket items, but that is why God gave women the shopping gene. :)