Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Market outlook: More of the same for the foreseeable future.

More of the same for the foreseeable future. That isn't too encouraging for those long the market but with ADP's jobs numbers coming in at a loss of 298,000 jobs, things aren't going to get much better. They had expected a job loss of only 213,000 jobs.

Yesterday, the Dow had dropped 185 for the day and at one time it was down 199 points. The put to call ratio is now at 0.93 and the VIX (Volatility Index) closed at 29.15, up 3.14 points. This is the highest it has been since the beginning of July.

I am still holding the ETF Triple Short Bear Funds, TZA and FAZ. Yesterday TZA closed at 15.76, up almost 7 % for the day and this with the highest volume it has had in 6 months. FAZ closed at 26.39, up almost 14% for the day, with its highest volume also in more than 6 months.

As I have said many times, I expect the market to be in a correction mode till October Options Expiration. We are headed lower most likely back to 7,800-8,000 or so and depending on the economic indicators projected for the 4th quarter this year, we could test 6,400 sometime in the first quarter, possibly as early as January when Christmas Retail Sales numbers will become evident.

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