Sunday, September 27, 2009

The Dow: Where are we going over the next few months?

I added more information to the Chart of the Dow which should give you a more complete view of where I see the Index going and what are the barriers of resistance that should prevent the Dow moving up much more any time soon. You can click on the chart to enlarge it and get a better view of it. The 2 dotted red lines will show you the range I believe the Dow will stay between in the next few months. You can see from the 2 Blue lines that the range has tightened over the past 2 moths and we are now at the resistance level of 10,000. The low end of the range here is 7,800 and it is not unimaginable that the Dow could reverse and go as low as 7,800 again, especially with earnings about to be issued for many companies over the next few weeks. I expect earnings to be good but not stellar as the bar was set so low by analysts. They will make their earnings BUT the top line revenues will disappoint. And that will validate the Consumer has all but stopped spending on unnecessary items. Christmas will be more uneventful this year than it was last year as many more are now unemployed. Oh, speaking of Unemployment, the numbers for September will show a higher Unemployment rate yet again and may go over 10% this time. Professor John Stiglitz, economist from Columbia University, has recently said (see Video clip on Bloomberg) unless we have greater than 3.5% GDP we will continue at least a 10% Unemployment rate for 2 years or longer. He believes many will not even file for Unemployment benefits as benefits will run out.

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