Friday, November 06, 2009

Nov. 6th, 2009. Are we headed up now that yesterday had such a big day for the markets? UPDATE

What now? That is the question. My close friend said he thought we broke the 3 year downtrend line yesterday. As you can see from the Dow 3 year chart above, we didn't. we are still in that tight wedge area on the right and could go along in this area for another 3 weeks at least without a breakout. But as each day passes with no clear breakout, to me it signifies the strength of this red line above. If it weren't that meaningful, then why haven't we easily broken above it? The reason is because IT IS MEANINGFUL to at least the 40% of analysts which are technical chart readers lime myself. Those analysts advise their company's who place all bets. And if you look at the S&P 500 chart, you can see if anything we may have broken below the support line a few days ago when there was the big selloff.

Look, I heard on CNBC that the Fed, and Chairman Bernanke himself, don't really believe in the recovery they have proclaimed these past 2-3 months. That is why there is no hurry to even signal interest rates are going to go up anytime soon. With the Unemployment rate at 10% and the real unemployment at about 17%, there amount of squeezing by companies to get some profit will continue. That means, unfortunately, even higher unemployment. With the Congress about to extend Unemployment benefits again, the those Unemployment numbers will rise as more are counted again who were dropped from the counting.

If you believe the recovery is real, I have a "bridge to no where" I would like to sell you. And remember this, when there is a breakout to the upside, I will be the first to proclaim it, even if it doesn't fit where the real economy is. That I promise you!

UPDATE: 5:35am PST

Unemployment reached 10.2% for October, up from 9.8% in September. Non Farm Payrolls were down 190,000 jobs.

UPDATE: 6:50am PST
Market opened down about 50 points but then after a half hour of trading, went positive. Confused yet? Why is bad news for Main St. good news for Wall St? They may think we have peaked at 10.2% Unemployment and I expect it to go over 11% anyway so that's a long time yet to play out. I see more Small Businesses closing and laying off more people as their reserve cash becomes depleted. They can't get money from banks as the banks are hoarding still.

Labels: , , , , , , ,


Blogger Minneloushe said...

Hi, Charles. I think I'll move my 401k into fixed income for a month, and then see what happens. What do you think ?

5:16 AM  
Blogger Charles Amico said...

I can't give you advice as to what you should do. You really should talk to a Financial advisor you trust. This sin't a cop out. I am NOT certified to give an individual financial advice. Many factors must be considered like your aversion to risk, your age, your financial context, and your time horizon. I am short term focused which to me is 3-6 months usually while I trade a number of times in a month. I can say I still predict the market is going lower and will test the 8,000 level as historically markets have retested. But having said that, it is merely a guess and there are no facts in the world that can truly predict, including charts.

Thanks for the question. Oh, by the way, I use Charles Schwab and Co. and have found they are reputable and have always been good to me.

5:44 AM  
Blogger Minneloushe said...

Thanks !
I'm aware you are not my advisor.
We're all waiting for Gene Hunt to announce something nice ... ANYTHING nice.
Markets moving down I guess today, with our TZA up in pre-market.
All the best. / jw

6:19 AM  
Blogger Charles Amico said...

I just updated my Blog on the market action in the first half hour, confusing everyone.

6:55 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Technorati Profile