Saturday, February 06, 2010

Dow and markets in for more trouble (Update)

As you can clearly see from the chart, the Dow is staying below its 3 year downtrend line, shown in red. This week's failed auction in Portugal to raise money was the catalyst for world markets selling off. It is a very fragile situation and this coming weeks auction on Wednesday should reveal more weakness in markets, unless someone steps into the breach and buys.

There has been concern shown in news articles that the Euro itself may fail. There are at least 4 Countries with the problem of high debt and a high % of their GDP allocated to paying it off. The US is not as bad as some of these countries but we aren't the best either.

In the meantime, be ready for another leg down in markets as more nervousness takes hold. This will cause the Vix to rise up again while Gold and Silver will take another drop.

I still have my ETF Shorts, TZA, FAZ and my Silver ETF Ultra Short, ZSL.


One thing I forgot but thought was important to add and that was that the Total Put to Call ratio on Friday closed at 1.21 which is the highest it has been since October. The rebound during the day from the 165 drop in the Dow most likely came because of this technical Buy signal. It may be good only or a day or two of trading but I think we are headed lower. Listen to the video of Noriel Roubini on to hear his most recent comments on the world financial crisis facing the EU.

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Blogger Minneloushe said...

Charles, my TZA is still way, way into the Red ! It is not quite 50% down, now, but I've got to see it get back into the 20's before I'm out of the hole on this one. Of course, I was unable to take advantage of your silver suggestions, since I'm all tied up in losing propositions for now. I had expected Beacon to be around 3 or 4 ... long ago, certainly after the $43mm guaranty was announced. But... nope.
Best. / jw

8:06 AM  

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